{"id":10858,"date":"2021-06-29T11:00:20","date_gmt":"2021-06-29T16:00:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/backup.primeaction.com\/sp\/?p=10858"},"modified":"2021-06-26T21:17:47","modified_gmt":"2021-06-27T02:17:47","slug":"recuperacion-mayor-y-mas-rapida-con-credito-analisis-del-banxico","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/backup.primeaction.com\/sp\/recuperacion-mayor-y-mas-rapida-con-credito-analisis-del-banxico\/","title":{"rendered":"Recuperaci\u00f3n, mayor y m\u00e1s r\u00e1pida con cr\u00e9dito: an\u00e1lisis del Banxico"},"content":{"rendered":"

Desde agosto del 2020 el cr\u00e9dito de la banca comercial al sector privado ha mostrado ca\u00eddas en M\u00e9xico, como consecuencia de los efectos de la crisis econ\u00f3mica por la pandemia del Covid-19.<\/p>\n

De acuerdo con un an\u00e1lisis publicado por el Banco de M\u00e9xico (Banxico) en su m\u00e1s reciente \u201cReporte de Estabilidad Financiera para el primer semestre del 2021\u201d, la experiencia demuestra que con cr\u00e9dito, la recuperaci\u00f3n de las econom\u00edas, principalmente las emergentes, es m\u00e1s vigorosa y r\u00e1pida.<\/p>\n

\u201cHacia adelante, una reactivaci\u00f3n de la actividad econ\u00f3mica, acompa\u00f1ada de un incremento en el cr\u00e9dito de la banca y de otros intermediarios financieros, permitir\u00e1 que la recuperaci\u00f3n sea m\u00e1s vigorosa\u201d.
\nEn el texto \u201cRecuperaciones con y sin cr\u00e9dito\u201d, incluido en el Reporte de estabilidad financiera, agrega que, lo anterior, considerando que el financiamiento permite a los hogares y las empresas, contar con recursos para que lleven a cabo sus actividades de consumo e inversi\u00f3n.<\/p>\n

\u201cLo anterior redundar\u00eda en una mejor calidad crediticia de los acreditados. El reto es importante, en vista de la contracci\u00f3n observada en el cr\u00e9dito al sector privado no financiero en el \u00faltimo a\u00f1o\u201d, enfatiza.<\/p>\n

En recesiones profundas, choques son de mayor magnitud<\/p>\n

En su an\u00e1lisis, el Banxico destaca que en las recesiones profundas, como la del Covid-19, los choques negativos son de mayor magnitud, lo que genera un peor deterioro en el ingreso de empresas y hogares y, por tanto, mayores necesidades de financiamiento en la etapa de recuperaci\u00f3n, que en una recesi\u00f3n tradicional.<\/p>\n

Adem\u00e1s, apunta, durante las recesiones profundas el n\u00famero de empresas que quiebran, es normalmente mayor y las tasas de desempleo suelen alcanzar niveles m\u00e1s elevados, lo que plantea dificultades para la recuperaci\u00f3n de la actividad econ\u00f3mica, pudiendo conducir a efectos m\u00e1s duraderos.<\/p>\n

\u201cPor tanto, al proveer liquidez a empresas y hogares, el cr\u00e9dito puede disminuir estos efectos y facilitar la recuperaci\u00f3n posterior\u201d, destaca.
\nCon financiamiento, las reactivaciones son m\u00e1s robustas<\/p>\n

As\u00ed, tomando como base recuperaciones que han seguido a recesiones profundas pasadas (y ciertas definiciones de literatura econ\u00f3mica), se tiene que el porcentaje de recuperaciones con cr\u00e9dito entre las diferentes econom\u00edas, oscil\u00f3 entre 58.8 y 83.6% durante el periodo comprendido entre 1980 y el 2019, adem\u00e1s de que fueron m\u00e1s frecuentes en las avanzadas que en las emergentes.<\/p>\n

\u201cLos resultados (…) sugieren que las reactivaciones con cr\u00e9dito tienden a ser m\u00e1s robustas. En estas recuperaciones el crecimiento del PIB es mayor, siendo la diferencia m\u00e1s grande para las econom\u00edas emergentes\u201d, refiere.<\/p>\n

Por ejemplo, apunta el an\u00e1lisis, para todos los tipos de econom\u00eda, con cr\u00e9dito, se mostr\u00f3 una recuperaci\u00f3n de 3.41%, mientras que sin cr\u00e9dito de 1.56 por ciento. Ello, en el PIB del primer a\u00f1o de recuperaci\u00f3n tras la recesi\u00f3n profunda.<\/p>\n

En las econom\u00edas emergentes, la recuperaci\u00f3n con cr\u00e9dito fue de 4.07%, mientras que sin cr\u00e9dito de 2.02%; y en las avanzadas de 3.13 y 1.30%, respectivamente.<\/p>\n

Con relaci\u00f3n al n\u00famero de meses para regresar a la tendencia del PIB en recuperaciones despu\u00e9s de la ca\u00edda profunda, para todas las econom\u00edas, con cr\u00e9dito fue de 21 meses y sin cr\u00e9dito de 22 meses; en tanto que para las emergentes fue de 19 y 24 meses, en cada caso; y para las avanzadas de 21 y 21 respectivamente.<\/p>\n

\u201cLos resultados sugieren que, si bien las recuperaciones con cr\u00e9dito son m\u00e1s frecuentes en las econom\u00edas avanzadas que en las emergentes, en este \u00faltimo tipo de econom\u00edas, el cr\u00e9dito es m\u00e1s importante para que la recuperaci\u00f3n sea robusta y r\u00e1pida\u201d, expone el Banxico.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Los resultados sugieren que, con este, las reactivaciones tienden a ser m\u00e1s robustas y el crecimiento del PIB mayor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10,"featured_media":10860,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"single-post.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_eb_attr":"","site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"default","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"default","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center 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