{"id":11187,"date":"2021-07-21T11:00:53","date_gmt":"2021-07-21T16:00:53","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/backup.primeaction.com\/sp\/?p=11187"},"modified":"2021-07-14T14:15:52","modified_gmt":"2021-07-14T19:15:52","slug":"inflacion-en-mexico-cerraria-2021-al-doble-de-la-meta-oficial-pese-al-alza-de-tasa-analistas","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/backup.primeaction.com\/sp\/inflacion-en-mexico-cerraria-2021-al-doble-de-la-meta-oficial-pese-al-alza-de-tasa-analistas\/","title":{"rendered":"Inflaci\u00f3n en M\u00e9xico cerrar\u00eda 2021 al doble de la meta oficial pese al alza de tasa: analistas"},"content":{"rendered":"

A pesar de que el Banco de M\u00e9xico (Banxico) increment\u00f3 a fines de junio su tasa de referencia y que posiblemente aliste m\u00e1s alzas, al menos cinco bancos y grupos financieros elevaron hace pocos sus pron\u00f3sticos de inflaci\u00f3n para el cierre de 2021 a alrededor del 6%, el doble de la meta oficial.<\/p>\n

En un movimiento sorpresivo, la autoridad monetaria (Banxico) subi\u00f3 el mes pasado en 25 puntos base su tasa clave para llevarla a un 4.25%, citando la necesidad de evitar afectaciones en las expectativas del \u00cdndice Nacional de Precios al Consumidor (INPC).<\/p>\n

Pero en junio, la inflaci\u00f3n general alcanz\u00f3 un 5.88%, muy por arriba del rango objetivo permanente de Banxico de 3%, +\/- un punto porcentual, y los expertos anticiparon que los precios solo ceder\u00e1n en agosto, para luego acelerar.<\/p>\n

\u201c(Un alza en la inflaci\u00f3n) ser\u00eda consistente con una mayor reapertura de la econom\u00eda, con los precios relativos a\u00fan normaliz\u00e1ndose gradualmente tras las fuertes distorsiones por la pandemia\u201d, dijo Banorte, que subi\u00f3 su pron\u00f3stico de inflaci\u00f3n de 5.5% a 6.1%, la mayor tasa desde 2017.<\/p>\n

Los especialistas a\u00f1adieron que su nueva estimaci\u00f3n tambi\u00e9n considera precios ascendentes del petr\u00f3leo a nivel internacional y una tendencia alcista en el componente subyacente del INPC.<\/p>\n

Pero el Gobierno no piensa igual y ha manifestado que las presiones inflacionarias son temporales.<\/p>\n

El secretario de Hacienda, Arturo Herrera, dijo apenas el viernes que espera que los precios comiencen a descender una vez que se supere el efecto de fen\u00f3menos meteorol\u00f3gicos como \u201cLa Ni\u00f1a\u201d en los precios agropecuarios, y se normalice la demanda de ciertos productos para el hogar.<\/p>\n

El funcionario a\u00f1adi\u00f3 que la discusi\u00f3n en M\u00e9xico es parte de un debate global, incluido en Estados Unidos, sobre la persistencia del aumento en precios.<\/p>\n

En tanto, en su reuni\u00f3n m\u00e1s reciente de pol\u00edtica monetaria, los miembros de la Junta de Gobierno de Banxico destacaron que la inflaci\u00f3n ten\u00eda un car\u00e1cter transitorio pero retrasaron del segundo al tercer semestre de 2022 su estimaci\u00f3n de convergencia del indicador hacia su objetivo permanente.<\/p>\n

PRESI\u00d3N POR REAPERTURA<\/p>\n

Pese a un repunte en el n\u00famero de casos de Covid-19 en M\u00e9xico, las actividades han comenzado a reabrirse en la segunda mayor econom\u00eda de Am\u00e9rica Latina, que se desplom\u00f3 un hist\u00f3rico 8.5% en 2020. Ello aumentar\u00e1 la presi\u00f3n sobre los precios al consumidor, dijeron los especialistas.<\/p>\n

\u201cComo ha sido el caso recientemente, los servicios b\u00e1sicos son la principal fuente de preocupaci\u00f3n debido a los constantes incrementos en las tarifas a\u00e9reas y los restaurantes\u201d, dijo Gabriel Lozano, economista en jefe para M\u00e9xico del banco estadounidense J.P.Morgan.<\/p>\n

El experto a\u00f1adi\u00f3 que, m\u00e1s recientemente, se ha agregado una din\u00e1mica preocupante en otras categor\u00edas, como entretenimiento, alojamiento, y ahora la vivienda, por lo que el banco modific\u00f3 de 5.6% a 5.8% la estimaci\u00f3n de inflaci\u00f3n para el cierre de a\u00f1o.<\/p>\n

Citibanamex, unidad en M\u00e9xico del estadounidense Citi, tambi\u00e9n elev\u00f3 sus pron\u00f3sticos de 5.64% a 6.13%, mientras espera que Banxico eleve en dos ocasiones m\u00e1s su tasa clave en 2021.<\/p>\n

Otros factores que podr\u00edan acelerar la inflaci\u00f3n ser\u00edan episodios de depreciaci\u00f3n cambiaria y la persistencia de la sequ\u00eda en varias regiones del pa\u00eds, advirti\u00f3 el Banco de M\u00e9xico.<\/p>\n

Bajo ese contexto, otros bancos y grupos financieros como Invex y Monex tambi\u00e9n modificaron sus previsiones, y esperan que los precios finalicen este a\u00f1o con un aumento de alrededor de un 6%, desde previsiones anteriores que rondaban el 5%.<\/p>\n

\u201cLa inflaci\u00f3n de 2021 ser\u00e1 una de las m\u00e1s elevadas de la historia reciente\u201d, dijo Marcos Arias, economista de Monex. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

La nueva estimaci\u00f3n de la inflaci\u00f3n tambi\u00e9n considera precios ascendentes del petr\u00f3leo a nivel internacional y una tendencia alcista en el componente subyacente del INPC.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10,"featured_media":11189,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"single-post.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_eb_attr":"","site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"default","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"default","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center 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