{"id":12037,"date":"2021-09-15T11:00:50","date_gmt":"2021-09-15T16:00:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/backup.primeaction.com\/sp\/?p=12037"},"modified":"2021-09-13T20:12:01","modified_gmt":"2021-09-14T01:12:01","slug":"inflacion-de-3-4-en-el-2022-solo-con-tasa-de-interes-de-6-analistas","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/backup.primeaction.com\/sp\/inflacion-de-3-4-en-el-2022-solo-con-tasa-de-interes-de-6-analistas\/","title":{"rendered":"Inflaci\u00f3n de 3.4% en el 2022, s\u00f3lo con tasa de inter\u00e9s de 6%: analistas"},"content":{"rendered":"

Para acercar la inflaci\u00f3n al supuesto de 3.4% que prev\u00e9 el gobierno y que proyect\u00f3 recientemente el Banco de M\u00e9xico para el 2022 se necesita que la tasa de referencia se sit\u00fae, al menos, en 6% en el primer semestre del pr\u00f3ximo a\u00f1o, advirti\u00f3 el Director para Am\u00e9rica Latina de Moody\u2019s Analytics, Alfredo Couti\u00f1o.<\/p>\n

En los supuestos del Paquete Econ\u00f3mico 2022, el gobierno estima que la variaci\u00f3n anual de los precios se ubicar\u00e1 en 3.4% con una tasa de fondeo en 5% y un tipo de cambio que cotizar\u00e1 al cierre del a\u00f1o en 20.40 pesos por d\u00f3lar.<\/p>\n

Pero estos c\u00e1lculos parecen no tomar en cuenta la persistencia de la presi\u00f3n que est\u00e1n reflejando los precios de bienes y servicios que no suelen sufrir volatilidad, es decir, la inflaci\u00f3n subyacente, enfatiz\u00f3 la economista para M\u00e9xico de BNP Parib\u00e1s, Pamela D\u00edaz Loubet.<\/p>\n

Ni las presiones a las que estar\u00e1 sometido el mercado mexicano ante el inicio del tapering, particularmente la reducci\u00f3n de compras de activos por parte de la Fed, resalt\u00f3 aparte la Directora de An\u00e1lisis Econ\u00f3mico y Financiero de Finamex, Casa Bolsa, Jessica Rold\u00e1n Pe\u00f1a.<\/p>\n

Apenas el nueve de septiembre, el Instituto Nacional de Estad\u00edstica y Geograf\u00eda (Inegi) inform\u00f3 que la inflaci\u00f3n de agosto fue de 5.59% anual con lo que se registr\u00f3 un sexto mes consecutivo fuera del rango permisible pero un tercer registro mensual en desaceleraci\u00f3n.<\/p>\n

En tanto, la inflaci\u00f3n subyacente \u00e9sta fue de 4.78%, un nivel que muestra un noveno registro mensual subsecuente al alza y cinco meses arriba de 4% y el nivel m\u00e1s alto desde diciembre de 2017.<\/p>\n

Esta medici\u00f3n elimina los precios de bienes y servicios que suelen ser m\u00e1s sensibles a cambios en los precios del mercado internacional (como el arroz, trigo, ma\u00edz); los que dependen de decisiones administrativas por parte del gobierno, (la Tenencia, la gasolina o el transporte p\u00fablico) y los fen\u00f3menos naturales y climatol\u00f3gicos (sequ\u00edas inundaciones y plagas).<\/p>\n

Supuestos descarrilados<\/p>\n

\u201cHay muchos eventos que podr\u00edan descarrilar estos pron\u00f3sticos. El retiro de est\u00edmulos, el llamado tapering motivar\u00e1 aumentos en las tasas globales de inter\u00e9s, y puede tambi\u00e9n precipitar volatilidad en el tipo de cambio y generar presi\u00f3n as\u00ed en los precios generales de mercados emergentes\u201d, argument\u00f3 Rold\u00e1n Pe\u00f1a.<\/p>\n

Tope de precios al gas, espejismo<\/p>\n

La economista para M\u00e9xico en BNP Paribas coment\u00f3 que la inflaci\u00f3n general se desaceler\u00f3 por los controles de precios de gas LP y que esta divergencia se mantendr\u00e1 mientras dure el tope del precio.<\/p>\n

De acuerdo con D\u00edaz Loubet, los datos del Inegi muestran que pese al tope de precios en el gas que inici\u00f3 a fines de julio, no se est\u00e1 deshaciendo el choque en la subyacente. La inflaci\u00f3n subyacente de la primera quincena de agosto fue el doble de la que se observ\u00f3 en el mismo periodo del mismo mes en los \u00faltimos cinco a\u00f1os, acot\u00f3.<\/p>\n

Restar presi\u00f3n<\/p>\n

Couti\u00f1o precisa que al llevar la tasa al menos a 5%, que espera se alcance este mismo a\u00f1o, restar\u00e1 presi\u00f3n a la inflaci\u00f3n que pr\u00e1cticamente se encuentra al doble del objetivo de 3 por ciento.<\/p>\n

La Junta de Gobierno complet\u00f3 un segundo incremento consecutivo de la tasa de fondeo, en una dosis de 25 puntos base, tambi\u00e9n en movimiento subsecuente que dej\u00f3 a la tasa en 4.50 por ciento. Desde su perspectiva esta gradualidad en el tama\u00f1o del alza, no corresponde a la tendencia que trae la inflaci\u00f3n.<\/p>\n

\u201cLa inflaci\u00f3n llegar\u00e1 a 5.7% este a\u00f1o y la subyacente en 5% seg\u00fan la nueva expectativa de Banco de M\u00e9xico divulgada en el anuncio monetario de agosto. En base al estimado ni siquiera ellos anticipan que la inflaci\u00f3n ceder\u00e1 en lo que resta del a\u00f1o\u201d.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Los supuestos del gobierno parecen sugerir que la nueva configuraci\u00f3n de la Junta de Gobierno, ser\u00e1 mucho m\u00e1s dovish; en el lenguaje de pol\u00edtica monetaria indica una pol\u00edtica expansiva donde el banco central relaja las tasas.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10,"featured_media":12039,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"single-post.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_eb_attr":"","site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"default","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"default","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center 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