{"id":15822,"date":"2022-06-21T11:00:55","date_gmt":"2022-06-21T16:00:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/backup.primeaction.com\/sp\/?p=15822"},"modified":"2022-06-20T13:02:27","modified_gmt":"2022-06-20T18:02:27","slug":"inflacion-y-choques-externos-amenazan-a-las-economias-estatales","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/backup.primeaction.com\/sp\/inflacion-y-choques-externos-amenazan-a-las-economias-estatales\/","title":{"rendered":"Inflaci\u00f3n y choques externos amenazan a las econom\u00edas estatales"},"content":{"rendered":"

Desde 2020, la econom\u00eda mexicana ha pasado por varias zonas de turbulencia asociadas a fen\u00f3menos como la pandemia, la disrupci\u00f3n en las cadenas de suministro y, recientemente, por el conflicto entre Rusia y Ucrania.<\/p>\n

Hacia adelante, el crecimiento econ\u00f3mico de los estados y municipios en M\u00e9xico estar\u00e1 condicionado a factores como la inflaci\u00f3n y los choques externos, y si hay una desaceleraci\u00f3n en Estados Unidos habr\u00e1 un impacto negativo en el pa\u00eds, dijo en entrevista Mar\u00eda del Carmen Mat\u00ednez-Richa, analista principal de subsoberanos de Moody\u2019s Local M\u00e9xico.<\/p>\n

\u201cUno de los grandes retos con estos problemas geopol\u00edticos es la desaceleraci\u00f3n de las econom\u00edas desarrolladas, entre ellas Estados Unidos, y el impacto que puede tener en las naciones emergentes. Ese es uno de los grandes riesgos que M\u00e9xico tiene en sus estados y municipios porque les da las participaciones el gobierno federal. Entonces, est\u00e1 muy ligado al ciclo econ\u00f3mico\u201d, advirti\u00f3 la especialista.<\/p>\n

\u201cCualquier impacto en el crecimiento econ\u00f3mico, tiene un efecto muy r\u00e1pido en el ingreso de estados y municipios\u201d, agreg\u00f3.<\/p>\n

Otro de los factores a tomar en cuenta es la inflaci\u00f3n, pues aunque representa un impulso para los ingresos, tambi\u00e9n pone \u201cmucha presi\u00f3n al gasto\u201d.<\/p>\n

Adem\u00e1s, est\u00e1 la tasa de inter\u00e9s de referencia de Banco de M\u00e9xico, la cual ha venido subiendo en las \u00faltimas reuniones de la Junta de Gobierno. Sin embargo, debido a que los estados tienen un \u201cendeudamiento moderado\u201d, la analista de Moody’s Local M\u00e9xico ve menos riesgo para las entidades por este factor.<\/p>\n

\u201cVemos m\u00e1s el riesgo en la parte de inflaci\u00f3n y del crecimiento econ\u00f3mico, porque en el futuro esos ingresos que ahorita est\u00e1n creciendo bien se pueden ver mermados en 2023 y 2024\u201d, coment\u00f3.<\/p>\n

A decir de Mart\u00ednez-Richa, \u201csi no pasa nada m\u00e1s, con las expectativas de tasas de inter\u00e9s m\u00e1s altas y un control de la inflaci\u00f3n\u201d, estados y municipios recuperar\u00e1n los niveles que ten\u00edan antes de la pandemia entre 2023 y 2024, \u201cm\u00e1s hacia el 24\u201d.<\/p>\n

Entre los riesgos que pudieran afectar a la baja el crecimiento econ\u00f3mico est\u00e1 un deterioro en los indicadores de seguridad p\u00fablica, altos niveles de inflaci\u00f3n y que contin\u00fae la incertidumbre interna y que ello afecte la inversi\u00f3n, se\u00f1ala el Reporte sobre las econom\u00edas regionales enero-marzo 2022 de Banxico.<\/p>\n

La mayor\u00eda de los analistas ha reducido sus pron\u00f3sticos de crecimiento para la econom\u00eda nacional en este a\u00f1o, para ubicarla en un m\u00e1ximo de 2%, un nivel muy inferior al 3.4% esperado por la Secretar\u00eda de Hacienda y Cr\u00e9dito P\u00fablico.<\/p>\n

Inversi\u00f3n<\/p>\n

Mar\u00eda del Carmen Mart\u00ednez-Richa destac\u00f3 el hecho de que la inversi\u00f3n en el pa\u00eds \u201cno se ha frenado\u201d. Si bien es cierto que contin\u00faan los problemas en las cadenas de suministro, lo que se puede traducir en retrasos en la producci\u00f3n, la inversi\u00f3n extranjera \u201csigue fluyendo en gran parte de los sectores\u201d.<\/p>\n

Particularmente en sectores como el automotriz, en los estados del Baj\u00edo y del norte de M\u00e9xico, donde las cadenas de producci\u00f3n del sector est\u00e1n bien posicionadas.<\/p>\n

En el sur sureste, la regi\u00f3n que la administraci\u00f3n federal se ha propuesto impulsar, \u201ctodav\u00eda no vemos consolidarse esas pol\u00edticas. Vamos a ver qu\u00e9 sucede\u201d, dijo la analista de Moogy\u2019s Local.<\/p>\n

El reporte de econom\u00edas regionales de Banxico sostiene que en el primer trimestre de 2022 la regi\u00f3n norte mostr\u00f3 niveles de actividad por arriba de lo que tuvo en el mismo periodo de 2020. La regi\u00f3n centro mostr\u00f3 que fueron similares a los del primer trimestre de hace dos a\u00f1os y el sur se ubic\u00f3 ligeramente por debajo de lo observado antes de la pandemia.<\/p>\n

Cambios en la calificaci\u00f3n<\/p>\n

Para evitar la volatilidad en las notas crediticias en escala nacional y para utilizar una escala de calificaciones con las que el mercado est\u00e1 m\u00e1s familiarizado, Moody\u2019s Local ha hecho cambios para evaluar.<\/p>\n

\u201cAnteriormente, las calificaciones de estados, municipios y de otros sectores depend\u00eda mucho del riesgo del gobierno soberano. Cuando hab\u00eda alguna acci\u00f3n de calificaci\u00f3n, estados y municipios se revisaban y, alguna veces, aunque no cambiaba su calificaci\u00f3n de manera global -la que primero asign\u00e1bamos- pod\u00eda cambiar su calificaci\u00f3n en estaca nacional, aunque el emisor tuviera ning\u00fan cambio significativo\u201d, explic\u00f3 Mart\u00ednez-Richa.<\/p>\n

Lo anterior, agreg\u00f3, provocaba cierta volatilidad en las calificaciones a escala nacional. Siempre habr\u00e1 una relaci\u00f3n entre el gobierno soberano por la forma en que funcionan estados y municipios, pero ya no se reflejar\u00e1 como antes en las calificaciones. Con la nueva metodolog\u00eda para asignar calificaciones, tambi\u00e9n viene otra nomenclatura.<\/p>\n

Por ejemplo, detall\u00f3, el AA+, que utilizan otras agencias, antes se llamaba AA1. Ahorita estamos desde un AAA, AA con el + (positivo) y \u2013 (negativo), para referirse a la perspectiva.<\/p>\n

\u201cEs una escala de calificaciones con las que el mercado est\u00e1 m\u00e1s familiarizado. Eso va a ayudar mucho a que para inversionistas y p\u00fablico en general sea m\u00e1s f\u00e1cil comparar los niveles de calificaci\u00f3n que se dan\u201d, asegur\u00f3.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Las econom\u00edas de estados y municipios pueden ser afectadas por una desaceleraci\u00f3n de la econom\u00eda de EU, dice Mar\u00eda del Carmen Mat\u00ednez-Richa, analista principal de subsoberanos de Moody\u2019s.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10,"featured_media":15824,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"single-post.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_eb_attr":"","site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"default","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"default","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center 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