{"id":16197,"date":"2022-07-22T11:00:03","date_gmt":"2022-07-22T16:00:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/backup.primeaction.com\/sp\/?p=16197"},"modified":"2022-07-21T17:35:18","modified_gmt":"2022-07-21T22:35:18","slug":"recesion-en-eu-afectaria-el-crecimiento-de-mexico-moodys","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/backup.primeaction.com\/sp\/recesion-en-eu-afectaria-el-crecimiento-de-mexico-moodys\/","title":{"rendered":"Recesi\u00f3n en EU afectar\u00eda el crecimiento de M\u00e9xico: Moody\u2019s"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"data:image\/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAAAAACH5BAEKAAEALAAAAAABAAEAAAICTAEAOw==\" data-src=\"https:\/\/cdn.forbes.com.mx\/2014\/12\/reuters-moodys-e1504716110873-640x360.jpg\" width=\"640\" height=\"360\" class=\"aligncenter size-medium lazyload\" \/><noscript><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/cdn.forbes.com.mx\/2014\/12\/reuters-moodys-e1504716110873-640x360.jpg\" width=\"640\" height=\"360\" class=\"aligncenter size-medium\" \/><\/noscript><\/p>\n<p>La agencia calificadora Moody\u2019s advirti\u00f3 este mediod\u00eda que una posible recesi\u00f3n econ\u00f3mica en Estados Unidos pondr\u00eda en riesgo la perspectiva de crecimiento del producto interior bruto (PIB) en M\u00e9xico.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cSi hubiese un choque negativo que provenga de los Estados Unidos para la econom\u00eda mexicana, lo que observamos es que esto presenta un riesgo a la baja de nuestro pronostico actual para 2022 de crecimiento de 1.8% para la econom\u00eda mexicana\u201d, coment\u00f3 Renzo Merino, analista principal de Moody\u2019s para M\u00e9xico.<\/p>\n<p>Sin embargo, el analista de Moody\u2019s asever\u00f3 en conferencia de prensa que no se prev\u00e9n mayores rebajas para la nota crediticia de M\u00e9xico hasta 2024, cuando se espera un cambio en la administraci\u00f3n del Gobierno mexicano.<\/p>\n<p>Moody\u2019s rebaj\u00f3 el viernes pasado la nota soberana del pa\u00eds de Baa1 a Baa2, mientras que mejor\u00f3 la perspectiva del perfil crediticio mexicano de \u201cnegativa\u201d a \u201cestable\u201d.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cCreemos que en el nivel de Baa2, el perfil crediticio podr\u00eda absorber estas din\u00e1micas m\u00e1s negativas, a ra\u00edz de una posible recesi\u00f3n o lo que podr\u00eda ser simplemente una disminuci\u00f3n en la actividad econ\u00f3mica en los Estados Unidos y lo que implicar\u00eda eso para la relaci\u00f3n con la econom\u00eda de M\u00e9xico\u201d, coment\u00f3.<\/p>\n<p>En este contexto, Renzo tambi\u00e9n consider\u00f3 que las exportaciones mexicanas hac\u00eda Estados Unidos han sido un factor de recuperaci\u00f3n para la econom\u00eda de M\u00e9xico, sobre todo por la demanda entre 2021 y 2022, ante las disrupciones en las cadenas globales de suministro desde 2020 por las presiones de la covid-19.<\/p>\n<p>El analista de Moody\u2019s se\u00f1al\u00f3 que s\u00f3lo un cambio en el \u201cmanejo de prudente\u201d de la macroeconom\u00eda o alg\u00fan endeudamiento que no se contempla hasta el momento y someta al pa\u00eds a presiones financieras, ser\u00edan los factores por los que se rebajar\u00eda nuevamente la calificaci\u00f3n de M\u00e9xico.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cEstas (presiones) podr\u00edan estar relacionadas, por ejemplo, a pasivos contingentes que se materialicen y lleven a un aumento sustancial en cuanto a la carga de la deuda del Gobierno de M\u00e9xico\u201d, acot\u00f3.<\/p>\n<p>Moody\u2019s pronostic\u00f3 que el producto interior bruto (PIB) de M\u00e9xico crezca un promedio de 2% anual de 2022 a 2024, por lo que regresar\u00eda a su nivel prepandemia en 2023, \u201cmucho m\u00e1s tarde\u201d que econom\u00edas calificadas de manera similar.<\/p>\n<p>Estos crecimientos llegan despu\u00e9s de la contracci\u00f3n hist\u00f3rica de 8.2% del PIB de M\u00e9xico en 2020 y el repunte insuficiente de 4.8% en 2021.<\/p>\n<p>La \u00faltima vez que la nota soberana de M\u00e9xico sufri\u00f3 una rebaja fue entre marzo y abril de 2020, cuando las tres grandes calificadoras internacionales, Standard &amp; Poor\u2019s (S&amp;P), Fitch y Moody\u2019s degradaron su calificaci\u00f3n.<\/p>\n<p>Fitch la ha mantenido en BBB- y S&amp;P en BBB, aunque apenas el mi\u00e9rcoles pasado Standard &amp; Poor\u2019s ratific\u00f3 la calificaci\u00f3n de M\u00e9xico, pero mejor\u00f3 la perspectiva a \u201cestable\u201d desde una anterior \u201cnegativa\u201d al reconocer un manejo prudente de las finanzas p\u00fablicas.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Pese a la recesi\u00f3n en EU, Moody\u2019s asever\u00f3 que no se prev\u00e9n mayores rebajas para la nota crediticia de M\u00e9xico hasta 2024.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10,"featured_media":16199,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"single-post.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_eb_attr":"","site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"default","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"default","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"_mbp_gutenberg_autopost":false,"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/cdn.forbes.com.mx\/2014\/12\/reuters-moodys-e1504716110873-640x360.jpg","fifu_image_alt":"Recesi\u00f3n en EU afectar\u00eda el crecimiento de M\u00e9xico: Moody\u2019s","footnotes":""},"categories":[10],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-16197","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-post-minorista"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Recesi\u00f3n en EU afectar\u00eda el crecimiento de M\u00e9xico: Moody\u2019s &#183; 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