{"id":16423,"date":"2022-08-08T08:00:09","date_gmt":"2022-08-08T13:00:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/backup.primeaction.com\/sp\/?p=16423"},"modified":"2022-08-05T14:10:59","modified_gmt":"2022-08-05T19:10:59","slug":"la-industria-automotriz-enfrenta-una-grave-incertidumbre","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/backup.primeaction.com\/sp\/la-industria-automotriz-enfrenta-una-grave-incertidumbre\/","title":{"rendered":"La industria automotriz enfrenta una grave incertidumbre"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"data:image\/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAAAAACH5BAEKAAEALAAAAAABAAEAAAICTAEAOw==\" data-src=\"https:\/\/cdn2.dineroenimagen.com\/media\/dinero\/styles\/gallerie\/public\/images\/2022\/08\/industria-atromotriz-economia.jpg\" width=\"720\" height=\"540\" class=\"aligncenter size-medium lazyload\" \/><noscript><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/cdn2.dineroenimagen.com\/media\/dinero\/styles\/gallerie\/public\/images\/2022\/08\/industria-atromotriz-economia.jpg\" width=\"720\" height=\"540\" class=\"aligncenter size-medium\" \/><\/noscript><\/p>\n<p>Todos se encuentran ante la expectativa de nuevos indicadores que permitan visualizar el futuro de este sector. Hay ciertos indicios que son positivos. La producci\u00f3n y exportaci\u00f3n mexicanas de veh\u00edculos ligeros mostraron se\u00f1ales de recuperaci\u00f3n en junio y la cadena de suministro automotriz parece recuperarse de manera moderada. La producci\u00f3n de veh\u00edculos de junio de 2022 suma dos meses consecutivos con incrementos anuales, mientras que la exportaci\u00f3n acumulada consigue igualar los niveles del a\u00f1o anterior. A nivel interno, las ventas de mayo y junio fueron 5.2 y 1.9%, respectivamente, mayores a lo registrado un a\u00f1o antes. <\/p>\n<p>No obstante, la recuperaci\u00f3n de esta industria no ha terminado. En el comparativo con el primer trimestre de 2019, las cifras a\u00fan est\u00e1n 17% por debajo en producci\u00f3n y 20.5% en exportaciones. Asimismo, existen otros datos que generan preocupaci\u00f3n. El Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) revela que el PIB de Estados Unidos se contrajo 0.9% a una tasa trimestral anualizada, siendo el segundo trimestre consecutivo en el que Estados Unidos registra una tasa trimestral negativa. Por lo mismo, se comenta que la econom\u00eda estadunidense se encuentra en v\u00edsperas de una recesi\u00f3n t\u00e9cnica. Esto amenaza con afectar la compra de veh\u00edculos exportados de M\u00e9xico, lo que causa incertidumbre, si consideramos que exportamos m\u00e1s de 80% de los coches que producimos a ese pa\u00eds. <\/p>\n<p>La industria automotriz es s\u00f3lo la punta del iceberg. \u00c9sta puede tomarse como ejemplo del desempe\u00f1o manufacturero y nacional por excelencia, dado que es representativa del comercio internacional mexicano y tiene un gran peso en la econom\u00eda nacional, abarcando 3.5% del PIB total y un poco m\u00e1s de 20% del manufacturero, generando 930 mil empleos y registrando una inversi\u00f3n extranjera directa de 5,367 millones de d\u00f3lares en 2021. Por lo tanto, si la industria automotriz sufre m\u00e1s decrementos, se producir\u00e1n repercusiones directas e indirectas en la econom\u00eda nacional. Esto ocurrir\u00eda en caso de que Estados Unidos experimente una recesi\u00f3n t\u00e9cnica este a\u00f1o. <\/p>\n<p>La coyuntura regional y mundial tampoco nos favorece. Los cuellos de botella en componentes automotrices esenciales persisten y se presentan tasas elevadas de inflaci\u00f3n que no se observaban desde hace d\u00e9cadas. Esto afecta el precio de insumos clave, traduci\u00e9ndose en bienes finales m\u00e1s caros, lo que impacta el poder de compra de los productores y consecuentemente el de los consumidores. Todo esto terminar\u00e1 por afectar a la producci\u00f3n automotriz del lado de la oferta de insumos, pero tambi\u00e9n por el lado de la demanda de veh\u00edculos.<\/p>\n<p>Esto podr\u00eda empeorar todav\u00eda m\u00e1s, considerando las fricciones alrededor del T-MEC y la lenta transici\u00f3n hacia la democratizaci\u00f3n sindical. Las disputas sobre la interpretaci\u00f3n del T-MEC podr\u00edan incrementar los requerimientos para hacer valer el tratado y dificultar que exportemos con tarifas preferenciales. <\/p>\n<p>A su vez, la capacidad de resoluci\u00f3n de conflictos por parte del Mecanismo Laboral de Respuesta R\u00e1pida, producto de la reforma laboral de 2018 y del T-MEC, est\u00e1 siendo puesto a prueba dentro del sector. Este mecanismo, en caso de ser deficiente en la soluci\u00f3n de controversias, podr\u00eda desalentar la inversi\u00f3n extranjera directa hacia el sector en M\u00e9xico.<\/p>\n<p>Ante la vulnerabilidad externa, la industria automotriz tampoco puede encontrar consuelo en el mercado interno. Tras la pandemia, las ventas internas de veh\u00edculos ligeros se desplomaron, pasando de vender 1.317 millones de autos en 2019 a 0.95 millones en 2020. Desde entonces, las ventas siguen sin superar los niveles previos a la pandemia.<\/p>\n<p>En 2021 el monto increment\u00f3 de manera marginal al registrar ventas de 1.014 millones de veh\u00edculos, mientras que para junio de 2022 las ventas acumuladas en el a\u00f1o permanecen 0.67% por arriba de lo registrado de enero a junio de 2021, de acuerdo con informaci\u00f3n del Inegi. Por lo tanto, la demanda interna permanece d\u00e9bil y, considerando la coyuntura actual, no mejorar\u00e1 pronto. Ante una demanda fr\u00e1gil la producci\u00f3n automotriz mexicana encontrar\u00eda pocos incentivos para recuperar sus niveles de producci\u00f3n anteriores a la pandemia.<\/p>\n<p>En caso de continuar la tendencia observada en los datos este a\u00f1o, nuestro pron\u00f3stico para la producci\u00f3n de julio a septiembre es de una ligera contracci\u00f3n de 1.3% mes con mes, mientras que las ventas podr\u00edan incrementar 1.1% en promedio entre agosto y septiembre. Sin embargo, si los elementos anteriormente mencionados empeoran, la recuperaci\u00f3n de la industria podr\u00eda prolongarse m\u00e1s.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Somos un sitio especializado en econom\u00eda, finanzas y tecnolog\u00eda que ofrece contenidos para volver innovadores a nuestros lectores.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10,"featured_media":16425,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"single-post.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_eb_attr":"","site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"default","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"default","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"_mbp_gutenberg_autopost":false,"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/cdn2.dineroenimagen.com\/media\/dinero\/styles\/gallerie\/public\/images\/2022\/08\/industria-atromotriz-economia.jpg","fifu_image_alt":"La industria automotriz enfrenta una grave incertidumbre","footnotes":""},"categories":[8],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-16423","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-post-automotriz"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>La industria automotriz enfrenta una grave incertidumbre &#183; 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