{"id":16499,"date":"2022-08-12T12:00:53","date_gmt":"2022-08-12T17:00:53","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/backup.primeaction.com\/sp\/?p=16499"},"modified":"2022-08-11T12:28:19","modified_gmt":"2022-08-11T17:28:19","slug":"contagio-recesivo-a-mexico-llegaria-por-el-sector-automotriz-de-eu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/backup.primeaction.com\/sp\/contagio-recesivo-a-mexico-llegaria-por-el-sector-automotriz-de-eu\/","title":{"rendered":"Contagio recesivo a M\u00e9xico llegar\u00eda por el sector automotriz de EU"},"content":{"rendered":"

M\u00e9xico tardar\u00e1 un par de meses en reflejar la recesi\u00f3n de Estados Unidos, si el sector automotriz se debilita, estim\u00f3 Nadia Montes de Oca, Senior Portfolio Manager en la operadora de fondos de inversi\u00f3n Franklin Templeton.<\/p>\n

Si Estados Unidos entra en una recesi\u00f3n leve, M\u00e9xico registrar\u00e1 una recesi\u00f3n moderada, proyect\u00f3. Sobre todo si asumimos que la econom\u00eda mexicana no est\u00e1 tan sana como la estadounidense, argument\u00f3.<\/p>\n

El sector automotriz de Estados Unidos sigue todav\u00eda fuerte, pero si se deteriora la manufactura probablemente pasar\u00e1n un par de meses para que se empiece a debilitar. Posiblemente tardar\u00e1 un par de meses en reflejarse aqu\u00ed en M\u00e9xico, recalc\u00f3.<\/p>\n

En el webinar mensual de Franklin Templeton, la experta coment\u00f3 que a diferencia de M\u00e9xico, los apoyos fiscales que despleg\u00f3 el gobierno de Estados Unidos en la pandemia dejaron en una posici\u00f3n m\u00e1s s\u00f3lida a su econom\u00eda. Los consumidores, que aportan cerca de 70% del PIB en EU, cuentan con ahorros que les permitir\u00e1n transitar la recesi\u00f3n.<\/p>\n

En M\u00e9xico, el nulo apoyo fiscal recibido origina la debilidad de la recuperaci\u00f3n econ\u00f3mica tras el choque de la pandemia y limita la resistencia del consumo interno ante el escenario recesivo, previ\u00f3.<\/p>\n

La experta coment\u00f3 que en la firma mantienen en 70% la posibilidad de que M\u00e9xico caiga en una recesi\u00f3n, y acot\u00f3 que el escenario base de la administradora de fondos es de un crecimiento del PIB de 1.5% para este a\u00f1o.<\/p>\n

Para los economistas de la firma, la inflaci\u00f3n de M\u00e9xico registrar\u00e1 una variaci\u00f3n anual de 8% y consider\u00f3 que los riesgos son al alza, tomando en cuenta que las expectativas de inflaci\u00f3n siguen subiendo y todav\u00eda no han alcanzado un pico.<\/p>\n

Desde su perspectiva, la inflaci\u00f3n registrar\u00e1 un repunte adicional en agosto y a partir de ah\u00ed comenzar\u00e1 a liberarse la presi\u00f3n alcista.<\/p>\n

Tasa entre 9.5 y 10%<\/p>\n

La estratega previ\u00f3 que la Junta de Gobierno de Banco de M\u00e9xico llevar\u00e1 la tasa entre 9.5 y 10% al cierre del a\u00f1o.<\/p>\n

Este pron\u00f3stico implica un alza de 75 puntos base para el anuncio de este mediod\u00eda, que dejar\u00e1 la tasa en 8.50%; y dos incrementos adicionales de medio punto cada uno.<\/p>\n

Montes de Oca descart\u00f3 que la sorpresiva inflaci\u00f3n de Estados Unidos pueda incidir en la decisi\u00f3n de Banxico.<\/p>\n

La Junta de Gobierno ha dejado claro que su principal motor de decisi\u00f3n monetaria es la inflaci\u00f3n local y que se gu\u00eda tambi\u00e9n por la posici\u00f3n relativa con Estados Unidos. De manera que el mal dato de inflaci\u00f3n de M\u00e9xico en julio, no ser\u00e1 ignorado en la decisi\u00f3n, pero la decisi\u00f3n ser\u00eda un\u00e1nime. Pero el alza de tres cuartos de punto es lo m\u00e1s previsible.<\/p>\n

EU, consumo defensivo<\/p>\n

La experta tom\u00f3 el comportamiento del consumo en Estados Unidos para sostener que no hay condiciones para esperar una recesi\u00f3n en el segmento.<\/p>\n

Tanto los consumidores como las empresas cuentan con suficientes ahorros que les dej\u00f3 la pol\u00edtica fiscal contrac\u00edclica que les permitir\u00e1n sortear la escalada de precios y el entorno recesivo, refiri\u00f3. Si bien los consumidores de bajos ingresos ya se est\u00e1n acabando sus ahorros, no vemos una tendencia pesimista ni una contracci\u00f3n en el gasto.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

En la firma mantienen en 70% la posibilidad de que el pa\u00eds caiga en una recesi\u00f3n, y acot\u00f3 que el escenario base de la administradora de fondos es de un crecimiento del PIB de 1.5% para este a\u00f1o.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10,"featured_media":16501,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"single-post.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_eb_attr":"","site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"default","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"default","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center 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