{"id":18101,"date":"2023-02-02T13:45:32","date_gmt":"2023-02-02T19:45:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/backup.primeaction.com\/sp\/?p=18101"},"modified":"2023-02-02T13:01:00","modified_gmt":"2023-02-02T19:01:00","slug":"nearshoring-y-la-posible-recesion-en-eu-definiran-la-economia-de-mexico-en-2023","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/backup.primeaction.com\/sp\/nearshoring-y-la-posible-recesion-en-eu-definiran-la-economia-de-mexico-en-2023\/","title":{"rendered":"Nearshoring y la posible recesi\u00f3n en EU definir\u00e1n la econom\u00eda de M\u00e9xico en 2023"},"content":{"rendered":"

El aprovechamiento de la relocalizaci\u00f3n de las cadenas de valor en M\u00e9xico por el nearshoring, una mayor inversi\u00f3n f\u00edsica y la posible recesi\u00f3n de Estados Unidos definir\u00e1n el futuro de la econom\u00eda mexicana en 2023, coinciden especialistas consultados por EFE este mi\u00e9rcoles.<\/p>\n

La incertidumbre envuelve al panorama econ\u00f3mico de M\u00e9xico para este a\u00f1o tras revelarse el martes su crecimiento de 3% en 2022, un dato que el Gobierno mexicano espera repetir, mientras existe una falta de consenso entre analistas y organismos, que proyectan crecimientos de entre 0.3% y 1.8%.<\/p>\n

De acuerdo con la m\u00e1s reciente encuesta de Citibanamex a analistas privados del sector financiero, el pron\u00f3stico m\u00e1s bajo para 2023 es del 0.3% estimado por Oxford Economics, Bank of America y BNP Paribas.<\/p>\n

Por el contrario, la previsi\u00f3n m\u00e1s alta para el a\u00f1o en curso es del grupo financiero Multiva con el 1.8%, seguido del consenso en 1.7% de la plataforma financiera GBM, de la casa de bolsa Masari y del Banco Base.<\/p>\n

En cambio, el Gobierno mexicano mantiene la expectativa de repetir la expansi\u00f3n de 3% que obtuvo en 2022, con una escala que va del 1.8% al 3%.<\/p>\n

El optimismo del presidente Andr\u00e9s Manuel L\u00f3pez Obrador ha llegado a estimar que esto se repetir\u00e1 por los dos a\u00f1os consecuentes, cuando termina su gesti\u00f3n.<\/p>\n

Sin embargo, organismos internacionales tambi\u00e9n han puesto en duda los pron\u00f3sticos tan altos del Gobierno mexicano, como el Fondo Monetario internacional (FMI), que este lunes actualiz\u00f3 su previsi\u00f3n hasta 1.7% para el PIB mexicano.<\/p>\n

En tanto, otros organismos como la Organizaci\u00f3n para la Cooperaci\u00f3n y el Desarrollo Econ\u00f3micos (OCDE) prev\u00e9n un avance de 1.6% en su m\u00e1s reciente proyecci\u00f3n, con un panorama menos alentador en el caso del Banco Mundial, que anticip\u00f3 un alza de 0.9%.<\/p>\n

Nearshoring, una oportunidad para crecer<\/p>\n

Los analistas consultados comentaron que el fen\u00f3meno del nearshoring presenta para M\u00e9xico una oportunidad que, de capitalizarse, lo llevar\u00e1 a superar todo pron\u00f3stico de crecimiento, aunque no es el \u00fanico factor.<\/p>\n

Eduardo Osuna, director general de BBVA M\u00e9xico, consider\u00f3 que la relocalizaci\u00f3n de cadenas de valor ser\u00e1 un \u201ccomponente importante del crecimiento futuro\u201d, aunque descart\u00f3 que vaya a ser el \u201csalvavidas de M\u00e9xico\u201d.<\/p>\n

Osuna se\u00f1al\u00f3 que el mayor impacto positivo para la econom\u00eda mexicana vendr\u00e1 de una mayor inversi\u00f3n privada nacional, sobre todo en infraestructura.<\/p>\n

\u201cCuando vemos la demanda agregada del pa\u00eds, tiene mayor impacto en t\u00e9rminos de crecimiento futuro y capacidad de crecimiento potencial\u201d, detall\u00f3.<\/p>\n

Por su parte, Carlos Serrano, economista en jefe del BBVA, explic\u00f3 que otro factor de desaceleraci\u00f3n estar\u00e1 vinculado a la posible recesi\u00f3n de Estados Unidos, aunque reconoci\u00f3 que revisar\u00e1n al alza su pron\u00f3stico pr\u00f3ximamente ante un panorama m\u00e1s alentador en ese pa\u00eds, a donde van m\u00e1s del 80% de las exportaciones mexicanas.<\/p>\n

\u201cEn la medida en la que Estados Unidos pueda desacelerarse menos de lo anticipado, M\u00e9xico crecer\u00e1 m\u00e1s de lo anticipado\u201d, acot\u00f3.<\/p>\n

La desaceleraci\u00f3n ya lleg\u00f3<\/p>\n

La directora de An\u00e1lisis Econ\u00f3mico y Financiero del Banco Base, Gabriela Siller, indic\u00f3 que las cifras del comportamiento econ\u00f3mico de M\u00e9xico indican ya una desaceleraci\u00f3n que se extender\u00e1 hacia 2023, por lo que su escenario central se mantiene en 1.7%, en l\u00ednea con el FMI.<\/p>\n

La tambi\u00e9n acad\u00e9mica del Tec de Monterrey a\u00f1adi\u00f3 que ser\u00e1 en el primer trimestre de 2023 cuando se vea una recuperaci\u00f3n por completo de la econom\u00eda mexicana frente a la contracci\u00f3n de 8.2% en 2020 por la pandemia de la Covid-19, pues asegur\u00f3 que el avance del 2022 todav\u00eda es \u201cun efecto rebote\u201d.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Si bien los pron\u00f3sticos de crecimiento de la econom\u00eda de M\u00e9xico son bajos, \u00e9ste depender\u00e1 de c\u00f3mo se aproveche el ‘nearshoring’ y de qu\u00e9 tan profunda sea la recesi\u00f3n en EU,<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10,"featured_media":18103,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"single-post.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_eb_attr":"","site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"default","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"default","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center 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