{"id":18849,"date":"2023-05-17T10:00:11","date_gmt":"2023-05-17T15:00:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/backup.primeaction.com\/sp\/?p=18849"},"modified":"2023-05-17T00:03:25","modified_gmt":"2023-05-17T05:03:25","slug":"pib-de-2-5-este-ano-con-riesgos-al-alza-anticipa-j-p-morgan","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/backup.primeaction.com\/sp\/pib-de-2-5-este-ano-con-riesgos-al-alza-anticipa-j-p-morgan\/","title":{"rendered":"PIB de 2.5% este a\u00f1o con riesgos al alza, anticipa J.P. Morgan"},"content":{"rendered":"

La econom\u00eda mexicana cuenta con las condiciones para conseguir un crecimiento de 2.5%, un pron\u00f3stico que puede ser incluso superior si contin\u00faa fortaleci\u00e9ndose la Inversi\u00f3n Extranjera Directa (IED), proyect\u00f3 el economista para M\u00e9xico y Centroam\u00e9rica en J.P. Morgan, Gabriel Lozano.<\/p>\n

Si sigue fortaleci\u00e9ndose el flujo de IED, la demanda agregada y la fortaleza del consumo dom\u00e9stico.<\/p>\n

Esta es la expectativa m\u00e1s alta de crecimiento que tiene alg\u00fan participante del mercado. Seg\u00fan la encuesta de Banco de M\u00e9xico, la media de las previsiones econ\u00f3micas para M\u00e9xico promedia 1.68% para este a\u00f1o, mientras la recopilada por Citibanamex est\u00e1 en 1.9 por ciento.<\/p>\n

Entrevistado por El Economista, Lozano argument\u00f3 que ahora la inversi\u00f3n privada est\u00e1 apuntalando de forma importante al crecimiento econ\u00f3mico.<\/p>\n

Venimos de a\u00f1os donde el consumo fue la punta de lanza de la resiliencia econ\u00f3mica, pero no ten\u00edamos inversi\u00f3n privada. Al disiparse los temores sobre la relaci\u00f3n comercial con Estados Unidos y una vez declarado el fin del complejo problema de la pandemia, vemos una importante entrada de inversiones de largo plazo en el sector manufacturero, principalmente en las regiones del norte del pa\u00eds, coment\u00f3.<\/p>\n

La inversi\u00f3n productiva privada se est\u00e1 acelerando a niveles interesantes que no esper\u00e1bamos, advirti\u00f3.<\/p>\n

Estima que la IED se estabilizar\u00e1 en cerca de 30,000 millones de d\u00f3lares este a\u00f1o y considera que lo importante ser\u00e1 que brinque por encima de este flujo en lo sucesivo.<\/p>\n

Refiri\u00f3 que antes preocupaba la falta de impulso a la inversi\u00f3n, la cancelaci\u00f3n de proyectos de alto alcance, como el aeropuerto, que hicieron m\u00e1s cautelosos a los inversionistas. Pero ahora se tiene mayor claridad.<\/p>\n

Remesas, 4% del PIB<\/p>\n

El experto destac\u00f3 que las remesas representan m\u00e1s de 4% del PIB, lo que supera en m\u00e1s de un punto y medio porcentual al flujo prepandemia.<\/p>\n

Las remesas y el turismo han sido muy importantes para fortalecer a la actividad comercial dom\u00e9stica y del consumo.<\/p>\n

Se puede decir que la mayor entrada de remesas tuvo un efecto de sustituci\u00f3n o amortiguador ante la falta de apoyos del sector p\u00fablico, coment\u00f3.<\/p>\n

Y por la misma situaci\u00f3n de salud, el gasto present\u00f3 una rotaci\u00f3n hacia la parte de bienes, pues no se pod\u00eda gastar en servicios como restaurantes, turismo o entretenimiento. Entonces, los recursos que llegaron y no se gastaron generaron ahorro y una demanda reprimida.<\/p>\n

Riesgos recesivos en el 2024<\/p>\n

Para el a\u00f1o pr\u00f3ximo anticipa un menor dinamismo en la actividad econ\u00f3mica, pues se tendr\u00e1 el impacto a fondo de una pol\u00edtica mayormente restrictiva en Estados Unidos y aqu\u00ed mismo.<\/p>\n

De hecho, prev\u00e9 un avance del PIB de 1.1%; sin embargo, acot\u00f3 que hay dos factores que pueden favorecer a matizar esta desaceleraci\u00f3n: el flujo de IED y el mayor gasto p\u00fablico social que suele presentarse en el \u00faltimo a\u00f1o de gobierno.<\/p>\n

Esta desaceleraci\u00f3n esperada incorpora los riesgos recesivos para Estados Unidos. Para el a\u00f1o pr\u00f3ximo, los economistas de J.P. Morgan prev\u00e9n un avance de 0.4% en el PIB de aquel pa\u00eds.<\/p>\n

El a\u00f1o pr\u00f3ximo tendremos de lleno el impacto de las tasas altas en Estados Unidos, que afectar\u00e1n al canal de cr\u00e9dito y debilitar\u00e1n a la econom\u00eda de aquel pa\u00eds, sobre todo, en el tercer y cuarto trimestre.<\/p>\n

Inflaci\u00f3n preocupa<\/p>\n

Pese a las mejores perspectivas econ\u00f3micas, consider\u00f3 que el mayor de los riesgos para M\u00e9xico es la trayectoria de la inflaci\u00f3n. El dato m\u00e1s reciente de inflaci\u00f3n al mes de abril fue de 6.25 por ciento.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

La inversi\u00f3n privada est\u00e1 apuntalando al crecimiento econ\u00f3mico; se est\u00e1 acelerando a niveles que no se esperaban.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10,"featured_media":18851,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"single-post.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_eb_attr":"","site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"default","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"default","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"_mbp_gutenberg_autopost":false,"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/www.eleconomista.com.mx\/__export\/1684293968430\/sites\/eleconomista\/img\/2023\/05\/16\/mexico_shutterstock_7108176.jpg_554688468.jpg","fifu_image_alt":"PIB de 2.5% este a\u00f1o con riesgos al alza, anticipa J.P. Morgan","footnotes":""},"categories":[10],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-18849","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-post-minorista"],"yoast_head":"\nPIB de 2.5% este a\u00f1o con riesgos al alza, anticipa J.P. Morgan · Prime Action Consulting<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/backup.primeaction.com\/sp\/pib-de-2-5-este-ano-con-riesgos-al-alza-anticipa-j-p-morgan\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"es_ES\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"PIB de 2.5% este a\u00f1o con riesgos al alza, anticipa J.P. 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