{"id":18947,"date":"2023-06-01T14:01:04","date_gmt":"2023-06-01T19:01:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/backup.primeaction.com\/sp\/?p=18947"},"modified":"2023-06-01T14:01:04","modified_gmt":"2023-06-01T19:01:04","slug":"perspectivas-del-maiz-en-el-mercado-mundial-en-2023","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/backup.primeaction.com\/sp\/perspectivas-del-maiz-en-el-mercado-mundial-en-2023\/","title":{"rendered":"Perspectivas del ma\u00edz en el mercado mundial en 2023"},"content":{"rendered":"

Para el ciclo comercial 2022\/2023, de acuerdo con estimaciones m\u00e1s recientes del USDA, la producci\u00f3n mundial de ma\u00edz ser\u00eda de 1,151.4 millones de toneladas (mdt). Con dicho volumen habr\u00eda una baja de 5.3% con respecto al ciclo comercial anterior. Este mismo decremento se estima con una variaci\u00f3n anual de 2.4% de la superficie cosechada y una ca\u00edda del rendimiento promedio mundial en 2.8%, al ubicarse en 5.73 toneladas por hect\u00e1rea.<\/p>\n

Los principales productores participar\u00edan con 65.2% de la producci\u00f3n mundial de ma\u00edz: Estados Unidos con 30.3%, China 24.1% y Brasil 10.9%, respectivamente. En EU se prev\u00e9 que la producci\u00f3n caiga en 8.9% con relaci\u00f3n a lo registrado en el ciclo anterior, con lo que se producir\u00edan 349 mdt. Ello, impulsado por una baja de 7.2% a tasa anual en la superficie cosechada y de 1.9% en los rendimientos.<\/p>\n

La producci\u00f3n de China se incrementar\u00eda en 1.7% con relaci\u00f3n al ciclo comercial anterior, mientras que para Brasil se proyecta un aumento de 7.8 por ciento. Para Ucrania, tambi\u00e9n se prev\u00e9 una baja significativa en la producci\u00f3n de 35.9% con relaci\u00f3n al ciclo previo, lo que equivale a una disminuci\u00f3n de 15.1 de mdt. Su producci\u00f3n alcanzar\u00eda las 27 mdt y tendr\u00eda una participaci\u00f3n mundial de 2.3 por ciento.<\/p>\n

El consumo mundial romper\u00eda su tendencia alcista observada durante nueve ciclos consecutivos. En 2022\/23 se alcanzar\u00eda un consumo de 1,158.3 mdt, disminuyendo en 2% el r\u00e9cord registrado en el ciclo anterior.<\/p>\n

El consumo forrajero ascender\u00eda a 729 mdt, mientras que el consumo humano e industrial se estima en 429 mdt. Los principales pa\u00edses consumidores ser\u00edan EU con el 26% de total y China con 26 por ciento. Le siguen la Uni\u00f3n Europea, Brasil y M\u00e9xico con 6.7, 6.3 y 3.8%, respectivamente.<\/p>\n

Los pa\u00edses en donde se prev\u00e9 un aumento del consumo con relaci\u00f3n al ciclo anterior son: China (2.1%), Brasil (3.5%) y M\u00e9xico (0.5%). Para los que se prev\u00e9 una baja son EU (-4.2%) y la Uni\u00f3n Europea (-5.6%).<\/p>\n

El comercio internacional de ma\u00edz se contraer\u00e1 en el ciclo 2022\/23 rompiendo una tendencia alcista de tres ciclos comerciales consecutivos. El volumen de exportaciones ser\u00eda de 181.1 mdt, una variaci\u00f3n anual de 11.6 por ciento.<\/p>\n

Los principales pa\u00edses que contribuir\u00edan con el 86.4% de las exportaciones ser\u00edan EU, Brasil, Argentina y Ucrania. Est\u00e1s expectativas est\u00e1n sujetas a que en Ucrania la guerra no tome causes adversos que impidan o restrinjan las actividades productivas y el comercio en ese pa\u00eds. El balance de la producci\u00f3n y consumo previsto llevar\u00eda al inventario final a un volumen de 295.3 mdt, una baja anual de 3.6 por ciento<\/p>\n

En 2022, el precio internacional del ma\u00edz amarillo #2 en el Golfo se cotiz\u00f3 en promedio a 282.0 d\u00f3lares por tonelada (USD\/ton), un aumento de 9.1% con relaci\u00f3n a 2021. Dicho precio se ubic\u00f3 ligeramente por debajo del precio promedio anual m\u00e1s alto de la historia, registrado en 2012, que fue de 296.6 USD\/ton. En diciembre, el precio spot se ubic\u00f3 en 256.2 d\u00f3lares por tonelada, 3.3% menor que el cierre del 2021.<\/p>\n

Con excepci\u00f3n de diciembre, el precio se mantuvo por arriba de sus hom\u00f3logos en el a\u00f1o previo. En la primera mitad de 2022 el precio subi\u00f3. Entre enero y mayo pas\u00f3 de 244 a 314 d\u00f3lares\/ton, y entre mayo y julio, se ajust\u00f3 ligeramente a la baja al pasar de 314 a 281 USD\/ton.<\/p>\n

En el \u00faltimo trimestre de 2022, pas\u00f3 de 277 a 256 USD\/ton. Ello, ante una menor producci\u00f3n y un aumento de la demanda mayor al esperado, que deriv\u00f3 en un menor nivel de inventarios al finalizar el ciclo comercial 2021\/22.<\/p>\n

Los movimientos de los precios, aparte de los factores de mercado propios del ma\u00edz, tambi\u00e9n pudieron estar influenciados por las preocupaciones sobre presiones inflacionarias as\u00ed como por las condiciones clim\u00e1ticas y los problemas geopol\u00edticos, as\u00ed como en las cadenas de suministros.<\/p>\n

En M\u00e9xico, en 2022 los precios al productor del ma\u00edz blanco alcanzaron precios hist\u00f3ricos, en promedio se cotizaron en 5,619 pesos\/ton, un aumento anual de 11.4 por ciento.<\/p>\n

En cuanto al precio al productor del ma\u00edz amarillo promedi\u00f3 5,833 pesos\/ton registrando un aumento anual de 19.1 por ciento.<\/p>\n

En el a\u00f1o el precio oscil\u00f3 entre 4,880 a 6,800 pesos\/ton, se convirti\u00f3 en el m\u00e1ximo hist\u00f3rico de la serie, con base en los precios mensuales al productor reportados por el SIAP en n\u00fameros del campo.<\/p>\n

Finalmente, en diciembre alcanz\u00f3 un precio de 6,740 pesos\/ton, registrando un incremento anual de 22.1 por ciento.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

En 2022, el precio internacional del ma\u00edz amarillo #2 en el Golfo se cotiz\u00f3 en promedio a 282 d\u00f3lares por tonelada, lo que signific\u00f3 un aumento de 9.1% con relaci\u00f3n a 2021<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10,"featured_media":18949,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"single-post.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_eb_attr":"","site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"default","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"default","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center 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