{"id":19113,"date":"2023-06-14T13:10:54","date_gmt":"2023-06-14T18:10:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/backup.primeaction.com\/sp\/?p=19113"},"modified":"2023-06-14T13:50:31","modified_gmt":"2023-06-14T18:50:31","slug":"bbva-mexico-descarta-problemas-macroeconomicos-hacia-el-final-del-sexenio","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/backup.primeaction.com\/sp\/bbva-mexico-descarta-problemas-macroeconomicos-hacia-el-final-del-sexenio\/","title":{"rendered":"BBVA M\u00e9xico descarta problemas macroecon\u00f3micos hacia el final del sexenio"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"data:image\/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAAAAACH5BAEKAAEALAAAAAABAAEAAAICTAEAOw==\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.eleconomista.com.mx\/__export\/1675180150645\/sites\/eleconomista\/img\/2023\/01\/11\/zocalo_shutterstock_1980287783.jpg_554688468.jpg\" width=\"1200\" height=\"675\" class=\"aligncenter size-medium lazyload\" \/><noscript><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.eleconomista.com.mx\/__export\/1675180150645\/sites\/eleconomista\/img\/2023\/01\/11\/zocalo_shutterstock_1980287783.jpg_554688468.jpg\" width=\"1200\" height=\"675\" class=\"aligncenter size-medium\" \/><\/noscript><\/p>\n<p>BBVA M\u00e9xico no ve que pueda presentarse un problema macroecon\u00f3mico al final del gobierno que encabeza el presidente Andr\u00e9s Manuel L\u00f3pez Obrador. Tampoco cree que alguno de los posibles candidatos del \u201coficialismo\u201d pueda poner en riesgo la estabilidad econ\u00f3mica del pa\u00eds.<\/p>\n<p>En la presentaci\u00f3n del informe Situaci\u00f3n M\u00e9xico, Carlos Serrano, economista jefe de BBVA M\u00e9xico, destac\u00f3 que, en el tema fiscal, se tienen finanzas p\u00fablicas sanas.<\/p>\n<p>Y aunque dijo qu\u00e9 hay algunas preocupaciones de mediano plazo, consider\u00f3 que hacia el final del sexenio se tendr\u00e1n cocientes de deuda bajos, por lo que consider\u00f3 que el grado de inversi\u00f3n no se va a perder.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cEn otros sexenios donde se han visto problemas, lo que hab\u00eda era desanclajes fiscales muy importantes. Ahora no estamos viendo eso y por lo tanto en nuestro escenario no est\u00e1 un problema macroecon\u00f3mico al final del sexenio\u201d, dijo Serrano.<\/p>\n<p>En cuanto a si alguno de los posibles candidatos de Morena, que ya se han destapado para participar en el proceso de sucesi\u00f3n presidencial, pusiera en duda la estabilidad macro, el economista de BBVA M\u00e9xico resalt\u00f3 que no es algo que est\u00e9 en su escenario base.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cSi hubiera un candidato que pudiera en duda estos fundamentales macro, externos, fiscales y monetarios, podr\u00eda haber mucha mayor volatilidad. No est\u00e1 en nuestro escenario base, no pensamos que pueda haber un candidato que ponga eso en juego, porque nos hemos dado cuenta de los beneficios de tenerlos\u201d, puntualiz\u00f3.<\/p>\n<p>Agreg\u00f3: \u201cen nuestro escenario base no est\u00e1 que haya un candidato que ponga en juego la estabilidad macro, en parte porque los candidatos del partido oficialista es poco probable que lo hagan porque est\u00e1n mencionando que habr\u00e1 continuidad\u201d.<\/p>\n<p>En la siguiente administraci\u00f3n se podr\u00eda crecer m\u00e1s<\/p>\n<p>Carlos Serrano consider\u00f3 que, dadas las oportunidades que representa el fen\u00f3meno de relocalizaci\u00f3n de cadenas productivas, nearshoring, hacia M\u00e9xico y en caso de que hubiera cambios en la pol\u00edtica energ\u00e9tica y mayor certidumbre a la inversi\u00f3n, en la pr\u00f3xima administraci\u00f3n podr\u00eda haber incluso un mayor crecimiento econ\u00f3mico.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cCreemos que con la siguiente administraci\u00f3n podemos ver tasas de crecimiento m\u00e1s altas\u201d, detall\u00f3.<\/p>\n<p>En 2023, la econom\u00eda crecer\u00e1 2.4%<\/p>\n<p>En su informe, BBVA mencion\u00f3 que ha movido al alza su pron\u00f3stico de crecimiento para la econom\u00eda mexicana en 2023, al pasarlo de 1.4% a 2.4%.<\/p>\n<p>Incluso el economista jefe de la instituci\u00f3n consider\u00f3 que si Estados Unidos logra sortear una posible recesi\u00f3n, M\u00e9xico crecer\u00eda este a\u00f1o a niveles del 3.0%.<\/p>\n<p>Lo anterior, explic\u00f3 BBVA, dado el efecto positivo del primer trimestre que estuvo impulsado por la demanda interna, que a su vez se ha fortalecido por las mejoras en el salario real y el empleo formal, sumado a una recuperaci\u00f3n del cr\u00e9dito al consumo y la evoluci\u00f3n positiva de las remesas.<\/p>\n<p>Tambi\u00e9n, destac\u00f3 el buen comportamiento de la inversi\u00f3n, con un mayor dinamismo del segmento de maquinaria y equipo.<\/p>\n<p>No obstante, el banco anticip\u00f3 un menor dinamismo hacia el segundo semestre del presente a\u00f1o, por lo que el estimado de crecimiento para el 2024 lo ubic\u00f3 en 1.8%.<\/p>\n<p>Inflaci\u00f3n cerrar\u00e1 el a\u00f1o en 4.6%<\/p>\n<p>En cuanto a la inflaci\u00f3n en M\u00e9xico, BBVA record\u00f3 que ha iniciado su descenso y previ\u00f3 que la general cierre en 4.6% en el 2023, mientras que la subyacente lo haga en 4.8%.<\/p>\n<p>En este sentido, anticip\u00f3 que el Banco de M\u00e9xico (Banxico), inicie el ciclo de bajada de tasas a partir del cuarto trimestre de este a\u00f1o.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>En su informe Situaci\u00f3n M\u00e9xico, BBVA mencion\u00f3 que movi\u00f3 al alza su pron\u00f3stico de crecimiento para la econom\u00eda de M\u00e9xico en 2023, al pasarlo de 1.4% a 2.4%.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10,"featured_media":19115,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"single-post.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_eb_attr":"","site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"default","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"default","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center 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