{"id":19866,"date":"2023-08-22T13:15:30","date_gmt":"2023-08-22T18:15:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/backup.primeaction.com\/sp\/?p=19866"},"modified":"2023-08-22T14:11:29","modified_gmt":"2023-08-22T19:11:29","slug":"crecer-mas-alla-del-2-5-es-cada-vez-mas-dificil-para-la-economia-de-eu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/backup.primeaction.com\/sp\/crecer-mas-alla-del-2-5-es-cada-vez-mas-dificil-para-la-economia-de-eu\/","title":{"rendered":"Crecer m\u00e1s all\u00e1 del 2.5% es cada vez m\u00e1s dif\u00edcil para la econom\u00eda de EU"},"content":{"rendered":"

Tras preguntarse durante a\u00f1os por la lenta recuperaci\u00f3n de Estados Unidos tras la recesi\u00f3n de 2007-2009, la Reserva Federal tuvo que hacer cuentas en su reuni\u00f3n de septiembre de 2016.<\/p>\n

Debido a la escasa productividad y al envejecimiento de la poblaci\u00f3n, el crecimiento econ\u00f3mico t\u00edpico de EU del 2.5% o m\u00e1s anual \u00abya no era posible\u00bb de forma sostenida, dijo John Williams, el actual presidente de la Fed de Nueva York, que en ese momento era jefe de la Fed de San Francisco, seg\u00fan las transcripciones de una sesi\u00f3n en la que los dirigentes monetarios redujeron su previsi\u00f3n mediana de crecimiento del PIB a largo plazo al 1.8%, continuando una ca\u00edda de aproximadamente una d\u00e9cada.<\/p>\n

Durante los tres a\u00f1os siguientes y continuando tras una pandemia que alter\u00f3 el mundo, Estados Unidos ha superado esa aparente limitaci\u00f3n, con un crecimiento superior al 1.8% en 21 de los 28 trimestres desde entonces, incluyendo un per\u00edodo de crecimiento anual del 2.5% en los a\u00f1os entre esa reuni\u00f3n de la Fed de 2016 y el inicio de la pandemia de coronavirus y con un promedio del 3% hasta ahora bajo la presidencia de Joe Biden.<\/p>\n

La pandemia, con su enorme rev\u00e9s al crecimiento en dos de esos trimestres en 2020 y la respuesta gubernamental multimillonaria que le sigui\u00f3, enturbia la comprensi\u00f3n de las tendencias emergentes.<\/p>\n

Sin embargo, cuando los dirigentes monetarios se re\u00fanan esta semana en Jackson Hole, Wyoming, para un simposio anual de an\u00e1lisis de la Reserva Federal que se centrar\u00e1 en los \u00abcambios estructurales\u00bb, tendr\u00e1n que lidiar con una econom\u00eda en profundo cambio, desde un crecimiento de la poblaci\u00f3n activa estadounidense que ha sido mejor de lo previsto, un aumento de la construcci\u00f3n en el sector manufacturero, el cambio de las cadenas de suministro mundiales, la persistencia de una inflaci\u00f3n elevada y, ahora, indicios de mejora de la productividad.<\/p>\n

Es poco probable que abandonen su pesimista visi\u00f3n del potencial econ\u00f3mico de Estados Unidos. La ralentizaci\u00f3n del crecimiento de la poblaci\u00f3n es una constante en las perspectivas de EU, la inmigraci\u00f3n sigue siendo una cuesti\u00f3n pol\u00edticamente controvertida y la mejora de la productividad, el otro motor clave del crecimiento, es dif\u00edcil de prever.<\/p>\n

Economistas de la firma de inversi\u00f3n BlackRock se inclinaron este mes por una visi\u00f3n a\u00fan m\u00e1s dura de lo que consideran un \u00abestancamiento del pleno empleo\u00bb, con un crecimiento potencial de Estados Unidos tan bajo como el 1% a medida que se jubila la generaci\u00f3n del \u00abbaby boom\u00bb, mientras la inflaci\u00f3n sigue siendo vol\u00e1til y persiste la escasez de trabajadores.<\/p>\n

No obstante, los dirigentes monetarios se han sorprendido lo suficiente en los \u00faltimos a\u00f1os como para que se inicie una conversaci\u00f3n m\u00e1s amplia, que se apoya en an\u00e1lisis t\u00e9cnicos que eval\u00faan si, por ejemplo, los tipos de inter\u00e9s subyacentes se han movido al alza, as\u00ed como en el hecho de que la gente sigue comport\u00e1ndose de manera diferente a lo que prev\u00e9n los expertos.<\/p>\n

Desde septiembre de 2016 hasta 2019, por ejemplo, la poblaci\u00f3n activa estadounidense creci\u00f3 aproximadamente el doble de r\u00e1pido que el moribundo 0.5% anual que el personal de la Fed ve\u00eda como la tendencia probable, un ritmo sostenido una vez que el n\u00famero de trabajadores disponibles se recuper\u00f3 en 2022 de una ca\u00edda impulsada por una pandemia hasta su m\u00e1ximo anterior.<\/p>\n

\u00abLa capacidad de atraer a la gente a la poblaci\u00f3n activa (…) era mucho mayor de lo que incluso los defensores pensaban\u00bb, dijo Adam Posen, antiguo dirigente monetario del Banco de Inglaterra y actual presidente del Instituto Peterson de Econom\u00eda Internacional de Washington. En su opini\u00f3n, la interpretaci\u00f3n err\u00f3nea de la cuesti\u00f3n por parte del banco central estadounidense es \u00abun fallo importante\u00bb que puede empa\u00f1ar el an\u00e1lisis de la situaci\u00f3n de la econom\u00eda.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Una menor productividad y el envejecimiento de la poblaci\u00f3n representan retos importantes para que la econom\u00eda de EU pueda crecer m\u00e1s all\u00e1 del 2% en el largo plazo<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10,"featured_media":19868,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"single-post.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_eb_attr":"","site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"default","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"default","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center 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