{"id":19882,"date":"2023-08-23T12:05:35","date_gmt":"2023-08-23T17:05:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/backup.primeaction.com\/sp\/?p=19882"},"modified":"2023-08-23T12:49:46","modified_gmt":"2023-08-23T17:49:46","slug":"economia-mexicana-crecera-mas-de-3-consumo-el-motor-encendido-bbva","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/backup.primeaction.com\/sp\/economia-mexicana-crecera-mas-de-3-consumo-el-motor-encendido-bbva\/","title":{"rendered":"Econom\u00eda mexicana crecer\u00e1 m\u00e1s de 3%; consumo, el motor encendido: BBVA"},"content":{"rendered":"

La actividad econ\u00f3mica mexicana alcanzar\u00e1 un crecimiento un poco mayor al 3%, apuntalada por el consumo interno y considerando la posibilidad de que Estados Unidos consiga un aterrizaje suave con su pol\u00edtica restrictiva. Este es el panorama que tiene el economista jefe de BBVA M\u00e9xico, Carlos Serrano.<\/p>\n

El pron\u00f3stico actual del PIB para M\u00e9xico que tiene BBVA es de 2.4%, pero se corregir\u00e1 al alza asumiendo los \u00faltimos datos de la actividad econ\u00f3mica al segundo trimestre y al retirar la expectativa de recesi\u00f3n que ten\u00edan para Estadoso Unidos, advirti\u00f3.<\/p>\n

Entrevistado por El Economista, refiri\u00f3 que en BBVA realizan revisiones trimestrales sobre sus pron\u00f3sticos, y la del PIB est\u00e1 programada para septiembre. \u201cTodo apunta a que la econom\u00eda conseguir\u00e1 un crecimiento superior a 3%\u201d, subray\u00f3.<\/p>\n

Con esta correcci\u00f3n al alza, BBVA se convierte en el cuarto banco de operaci\u00f3n mundial que espera un crecimiento econ\u00f3mico superior a 3% para M\u00e9xico, junto con Barclays (3.2%), BNP Paribas (3.5%) y Bank of America Securities (3.2 por ciento).<\/p>\n

Serrano destac\u00f3 que el motor interno de crecimiento sigue encendido en el consumo, impulsado por la fortaleza de los salarios reales que han crecido por encima de la inflaci\u00f3n as\u00ed como por la creaci\u00f3n de empleos.<\/p>\n

De hecho matiz\u00f3 que el crecimiento econ\u00f3mico ser\u00eda mucho mayor con una pol\u00edtica monetaria menos restrictiva.<\/p>\n

Inflaci\u00f3n y tasas<\/p>\n

Acerca de la inflaci\u00f3n, estima que terminar\u00e1 este a\u00f1o con una variaci\u00f3n de 4.5 a 4.6% anual, con una clara trayectoria descendente que refleja el efecto de la pol\u00edtica restrictiva.<\/p>\n

Anticipa que Banco de M\u00e9xico asumir\u00e1 esta tendencia a la baja que est\u00e1 presentando la inflaci\u00f3n para ajustar la restricci\u00f3n monetaria y dejar la tasa en 11% al cierre del a\u00f1o o principios del pr\u00f3ximo. Ello implica la previsi\u00f3n de un recorte de un cuarto de punto que puede completarse en noviembre o diciembre.<\/p>\n

Las tasas reales est\u00e1n muy elevadas, en torno a 7%, estim\u00f3; es de las m\u00e1s altas entre los pares que tienen el mismo grado de inversi\u00f3n y comenzar\u00e1 a afectar la demanda del cr\u00e9dito empresarial.<\/p>\n

Nearshoring, incipiente<\/p>\n

Desde su perspectiva, la relocalizaci\u00f3n de empresas que buscan acortar la distancia entre los proveedores y los productores, el llamado nearshoring, crece de manera incipiente y no es a\u00fan transformacional.<\/p>\n

Lo que tenemos por ahora son muchos anuncios de inversiones como la de Tesla, que se concretar\u00e1 probablemente a partir del a\u00f1o pr\u00f3ximo. Se ve alg\u00fan efecto en la Inversi\u00f3n Extranjera Directa, pero es incipiente.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

La actividad econ\u00f3mica mexicana alcanzar\u00e1 un crecimiento un poco mayor al 3%, apuntalada por el consumo interno y considerando la posibilidad de que Estados Unidos consiga un aterrizaje suave con su pol\u00edtica restrictiva. Este es el panorama que tiene el economista jefe de BBVA M\u00e9xico, Carlos Serrano.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10,"featured_media":19884,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"single-post.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_eb_attr":"","site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"default","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"default","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"_mbp_gutenberg_autopost":false,"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/www.eleconomista.com.mx\/__export\/1686017431457\/sites\/eleconomista\/img\/2023\/05\/31\/shutterstock_1065793139.jpg_554688468.jpg","fifu_image_alt":"Econom\u00eda mexicana crecer\u00e1 m\u00e1s de 3%; consumo, el motor encendido: BBVA","footnotes":""},"categories":[10],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-19882","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-post-minorista"],"yoast_head":"\nEconom\u00eda mexicana crecer\u00e1 m\u00e1s de 3%; consumo, el motor encendido: BBVA · Prime Action Consulting<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/backup.primeaction.com\/sp\/economia-mexicana-crecera-mas-de-3-consumo-el-motor-encendido-bbva\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"es_ES\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Econom\u00eda mexicana crecer\u00e1 m\u00e1s de 3%; consumo, el motor encendido: BBVA · Prime Action Consulting\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"La actividad econ\u00f3mica mexicana alcanzar\u00e1 un crecimiento un poco mayor al 3%, apuntalada por el consumo interno y considerando la posibilidad de que Estados Unidos consiga un aterrizaje suave con su pol\u00edtica restrictiva. 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