{"id":8248,"date":"2021-01-18T11:00:54","date_gmt":"2021-01-18T17:00:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/backup.primeaction.com\/sp\/?p=8248"},"modified":"2021-01-12T16:57:19","modified_gmt":"2021-01-12T22:57:19","slug":"vacunacion-mayor-reto-para-la-economia-en-2021-analistas","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/backup.primeaction.com\/sp\/vacunacion-mayor-reto-para-la-economia-en-2021-analistas\/","title":{"rendered":"Vacunaci\u00f3n, mayor reto para la econom\u00eda en 2021: analistas"},"content":{"rendered":"

La econom\u00eda mexicana enfrentar\u00e1 grandes retos para recuperarse de la crisis econ\u00f3mica y sanitaria sin precedentes y en el presente a\u00f1o crecer\u00e1 3 por ciento, que compensar\u00e1 apenas una parte de la ca\u00edda estimada de 9 por ciento en 2020, de acuerdo con Credit Suisse.<\/p>\n

Alonso Cervera, economista en jefe Am\u00e9rica Latina de la instituci\u00f3n, revel\u00f3 en un an\u00e1lisis que en M\u00e9xico nunca se aplan\u00f3 la curva de contagios como s\u00ed lo hicieron otros pa\u00edses, por lo que la vacunaci\u00f3n ser\u00e1 el principal reto de la actual administraci\u00f3n.<\/p>\n

\u201cM\u00e9xico enfrenta desaf\u00edos importantes, ya que necesita asegurar suficientes vacunas para 129 millones de personas (es el d\u00e9cimo pa\u00eds m\u00e1s grande del mundo), para ser desplegado por un sistema de salud debilitado que, incluso antes de que llegara la pandemia, no pod\u00eda asegurar suficientes medicamentos y vacunas durante gran parte de los \u00faltimos dos a\u00f1os\u201d, dijo.<\/p>\n

Am\u00edn Vera, director de an\u00e1lisis econ\u00f3mico en BW Capital, concord\u00f3 en que en M\u00e9xico no se vislumbra una campa\u00f1a de vacunaci\u00f3n eficiente por parte del sector p\u00fablico, y dadas las restricciones a los privados se espera un repunte importante de casos, al menos durante el primer trimestre.<\/p>\n

\u201cPor el momento mantenemos un pron\u00f3stico de crecimiento del PIB en un rango de entre 2 y 4 por ciento, pero sujeto a revisi\u00f3n en caso de que el n\u00famero de infectados no baje en las pr\u00f3ximas semanas y\/o ante la posibilidad de que se decrete un nuevo confinamiento\u201d, puntualiz\u00f3.<\/p>\n

Cervera estim\u00f3 que ser\u00e1 hasta dentro de 5 a\u00f1os cuando los niveles del Producto Interno Bruto (PIB) per c\u00e1pita alcancen las cifras previas a la crisis sanitaria.<\/p>\n

\u201cProyectamos que los niveles de PIB real per c\u00e1pita prepand\u00e9micos no se observar\u00e1n hasta 2026\u201d, acot\u00f3.<\/p>\n

Asever\u00f3 que pese a la crisis sanitaria que sigue vigente en el pa\u00eds, los niveles de aprobaci\u00f3n del presidente no han disminuido.<\/p>\n

\u201cLos niveles de aprobaci\u00f3n del presidente han sido en gran medida inmunes a las crisis de salud y macroecon\u00f3micas. Esto, pensamos, ayuda a explicar su renuencia a cambiar de rumbo\u201d, dijo Cervera, y a\u00f1adi\u00f3 que, de acuerdo con la m\u00e1s reciente encuesta de Oraculus, el porcentaje de aprobaci\u00f3n de L\u00f3pez Obrador es de 61 por ciento.<\/p>\n

Por otra parte, consider\u00f3 que el Banco de M\u00e9xico tiene espacio para recortar al menos otros 50 puntos base la tasa de inter\u00e9s de referencia en este a\u00f1o para apoyar la incipiente recuperaci\u00f3n econ\u00f3mica.<\/p>\n

Seg\u00fan sus pron\u00f3sticos, la autoridad monetaria recortar\u00e1 la tasa a 3.75 por ciento en el primer trimestre de este a\u00f1o, aprovechando los niveles de inflaci\u00f3n cercanos al 3 por ciento.<\/p>\n

\u201cPueden ocurrir cortes adicionales m\u00e1s adelante en el a\u00f1o, si las condiciones del mercado lo permiten. Sin embargo, queda por ver si los recortes de tasas proyectados realmente penetrar\u00e1n en la econom\u00eda a trav\u00e9s de un aumento en el cr\u00e9dito\u201d, indic\u00f3.<\/p>\n

Sector externo, el principal motor<\/p>\n

Ricardo Aguilar, economista en jefe para Invex, asever\u00f3 que para este a\u00f1o se espera un rebote del PIB de 3.5 por ciento, con el sector externo como el principal motor econ\u00f3mico.<\/p>\n

\u201cEl sector externo ser\u00e1 el principal motor de la econom\u00eda, pues las variables que reflejan el comportamiento de la demanda interna (principalmente empleo, consumo e inversi\u00f3n) se mantienen d\u00e9biles\u201d, asegur\u00f3 el experto.<\/p>\n

Se\u00f1al\u00f3 que el consumo privado depender\u00e1 del empleo y las perspectivas para el mercado laboral no son optimistas, sobre todo si no se da un control adecuado de la pandemia.<\/p>\n

\u201cUn mal control de la pandemia representa el principal riesgo para el empleo, pues el regreso a sem\u00e1foros rojos generar\u00eda el cierre de establecimientos y la liberaci\u00f3n de trabajadores que podr\u00eda no ser temporal, principalmente en el sector de servicios\u201d, dijo.<\/p>\n

Aguilar tambi\u00e9n estim\u00f3 que la autoridad monetaria tiene espacio suficiente para recortar la tasa de referencia, a 3.75 por ciento durante este primer trimestre.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Expertos indican que M\u00e9xico necesita asegurar suficientes vacunas para 129 millones de personas, pero tiene un sistema de salud debilitado, incluso, antes de que llegara la pandemia.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10,"featured_media":8250,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"single-post.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_eb_attr":"","site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"default","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"default","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center 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