{"id":8285,"date":"2021-01-20T11:00:39","date_gmt":"2021-01-20T17:00:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/backup.primeaction.com\/sp\/?p=8285"},"modified":"2021-01-17T22:56:34","modified_gmt":"2021-01-18T04:56:34","slug":"empleo-y-pemex-principales-riegos-para-el-crecimiento-de-mexico-bnp-paribas","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/backup.primeaction.com\/sp\/empleo-y-pemex-principales-riegos-para-el-crecimiento-de-mexico-bnp-paribas\/","title":{"rendered":"Empleo y Pemex, principales riegos para el crecimiento de M\u00e9xico: BNP Paribas"},"content":{"rendered":"

En 2021 la econom\u00eda mexicana podr\u00eda registrar un crecimiento de 3%; sin embargo, el mercado laboral, Petr\u00f3leos Mexicanos (Pemex), el proceso electoral y la discusi\u00f3n sobre las modificaciones a la Ley del Banco de M\u00e9xico ser\u00e1n los principales factores de riesgo, consider\u00f3 la Economista de Jefe de BNP Paribas, Pamela D\u00edaz Loubet.<\/p>\n

En entrevista con Forbes M\u00e9xico, la especialista del banco de origen franc\u00e9s explic\u00f3 que el incremento que esperan para el Producto Interno Bruto (PIB) est\u00e1 por debajo del estimado promedio del resto de pa\u00edses de Latinoam\u00e9rica de 3.5%.<\/p>\n

Y es que, explic\u00f3, la ausencia de gasto p\u00fablico focalizado inhibi\u00f3 que pueda haber un crecimiento econ\u00f3mico m\u00e1s acelerado, adem\u00e1s el componente de inversi\u00f3n fija dentro de la demanda agregada sigue con algunas presiones y a la baja.<\/p>\n

Asimismo, estim\u00f3 que el avance de la econom\u00eda mexicana se dar\u00e1 de forma desigual entre sectores, debi\u00f3 a que la mayor parte de la recuperaci\u00f3n se ver\u00e1 en el sector secundario, asociado a la demanda externa; mientras que el terciario se mantenga rezagado.<\/p>\n

De acuerdo con la economista de la instituci\u00f3n financiera, esta situaci\u00f3n har\u00e1 que M\u00e9xico sea m\u00e1s vulnerable a cualquier clase de choque que se pueda dar en el exterior, tanto negativos, como positivos.<\/p>\n

Pamela D\u00edas precis\u00f3 que entre los factores que pueden ayudar a la econom\u00eda mexicana est\u00e1 el cambio de administraci\u00f3n en los Estados Unidos, ya que ambos pa\u00edses se han beneficiado hist\u00f3ricamente por tres canales econ\u00f3micos: las remesas, la sincronizaci\u00f3n de los ciclos industriales y los flujos de inversi\u00f3n extranjera directa.<\/p>\n

\u201cEl hecho de que haya un cambio de administraci\u00f3n en Estados Unidos va a ser favorable, no solamente porque se van a mantener estos tres canales tradicionales econ\u00f3micos, sino tambi\u00e9n porque en general la administraci\u00f3n de Joe Biden va a obedecer a canales m\u00e1s tradicionales\u201d, afirm\u00f3.<\/p>\n

Mientras que, en la parte interna, para la especialista el riesgo m\u00e1s importante es la situaci\u00f3n del mercado laboral, ya que si bien la tasa de desempleo se mantiene relativamente baja, en niveles de 4.4%, la brecha laboral sigue siendo bastante alta en comparaci\u00f3n a los niveles que hab\u00eda prepandemia, as\u00ed como el aumento de la informalidad.<\/p>\n

Adem\u00e1s, consider\u00f3 que Pemex seguir\u00e1 teniendo un peso importante, de hecho, el Banco de M\u00e9xico lo menciona como uno de los riesgos idiosincr\u00e1ticos, adem\u00e1s de su influencia importante para las calificadoras.<\/p>\n

D\u00edaz Loubet dijo que para la petrolera nacional existen tres puntos a analizar: el hecho que la producci\u00f3n petrolera se ha venido cayendo, la tasa de remplazo de las reservas y la colocaci\u00f3n de capital que tiene la empresa.<\/p>\n

\u201cMe parece que hacia delante va a seguir enfocado, porque as\u00ed lo ha planteado el presidente L\u00f3pez Obrador, va a seguir concentrado en la parte de downstream de Pemex, en lugar de la parte de upstream y eso va a seguir generando se\u00f1ales de alerta para las calificadoras\u201d.<\/p>\n

Adem\u00e1s, consider\u00f3 que entre los factores que influir\u00e1n en el comportamiento del PIB en 2021 esta el proceso electoral y discusi\u00f3n sobre las modificaciones del Banco de M\u00e9xico, la cual estima no se aprobar\u00e1 en los t\u00e9rminos actuales.<\/p>\n

La economista en Jefe de BNP Paribas descart\u00f3 que M\u00e9xico vaya a perder este a\u00f1o el grado de inversi\u00f3n, debido a que en Moody\u2019s est\u00e1 a 3 escalones, en S&P est\u00e1 a 2 escalones y Fitch est\u00e1 1.<\/p>\n

\u201cM\u00e9xico va a tener una posici\u00f3n fiscal m\u00e1s s\u00f3lida que otros pa\u00edses de Latinoam\u00e9rica y eso va a ayudar, en conjunto de una iniciativa de una reforma fiscal para 2022, a que el pa\u00eds tenga esta posici\u00f3n mejor y no pierda el grado de inversi\u00f3n\u201d, precis\u00f3.<\/p>\n

Pero, coment\u00f3 que existen otros elementos que s\u00ed pueden pesar, como una visi\u00f3n de finanzas p\u00fablicas de m\u00e1s largo plazo, as\u00ed como el marco institucional, donde entra la ley de Banco de M\u00e9xico, por lo que si hay una ca\u00edda en la calificaci\u00f3n debido a la parte institucional.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

La ausencia de gasto p\u00fablico focalizado inhibi\u00f3 que pueda haber un crecimiento econ\u00f3mico m\u00e1s acelerado.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10,"featured_media":8287,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"single-post.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_eb_attr":"","site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"default","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"default","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center 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