{"id":8492,"date":"2021-02-04T09:00:44","date_gmt":"2021-02-04T15:00:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/backup.primeaction.com\/sp\/?p=8492"},"modified":"2021-01-29T17:58:23","modified_gmt":"2021-01-29T23:58:23","slug":"perspectivas-del-precio-de-maiz-para-el-ciclo-oi-2020-21","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/backup.primeaction.com\/sp\/perspectivas-del-precio-de-maiz-para-el-ciclo-oi-2020-21\/","title":{"rendered":"Perspectivas del precio de ma\u00edz para el ciclo OI 2020\/21"},"content":{"rendered":"

Durante los \u00faltimos cinco a\u00f1os (2015-2019), la producci\u00f3n de ma\u00edz en el pa\u00eds en promedio fue de 27 millones de toneladas. Los ciclos productivos del ma\u00edz son: primavera-verano que representa el 70% de la producci\u00f3n nacional y oto\u00f1o-invierno con 30% restante; el primero, se caracteriza porque la producci\u00f3n se obtiene principalmente en condiciones de temporal (68% de la producci\u00f3n total del ciclo); y el segundo, porque la producci\u00f3n principalmente se obtiene en condiciones de riego (90% de la producci\u00f3n total del ciclo).<\/p>\n

Sinaloa es el principal productor de ma\u00edz en el pa\u00eds. En el ciclo oto\u00f1o-invierno 2019\/20 obtuvo una producci\u00f3n de 6.4 millones de toneladas que represent\u00f3 el 80% de la producci\u00f3n de ese ciclo y el 23.4% de la producci\u00f3n nacional.<\/p>\n

Recientemente, inici\u00f3 las labores productivas de preparaci\u00f3n de la tierra y la siembra, con las primeras ministraciones de cr\u00e9dito que le han sido otorgadas correspondientes al ciclo oto\u00f1o-inverno 2020\/21.<\/p>\n

Uno de los factores m\u00e1s importantes para los productores es el buscar y asegurar un precio de venta, pueden existir varios mecanismos de administraci\u00f3n de riesgo como los contratos de compra-venta, el seguro al ingreso y principalmente las coberturas de precio.<\/p>\n

En este sentido, tradicionalmente los agricultores de esa regi\u00f3n usan el mecanismo de coberturas de precio y contratan las coberturas con vencimiento a julio de cada a\u00f1o, pues las cosechas son de mayo a junio.<\/p>\n

De acuerdo al \u00faltimo reporte del Departamento de Agricultura de Estados Unidos (USDA, por sus siglas en ingl\u00e9s), las expectativas internacionales de producci\u00f3n de ma\u00edz mundial para el siguiente ciclo son de 1,143 millones de toneladas, ligeramente inferior a la estimaci\u00f3n anterior debido a menor producci\u00f3n esperada en Argentina, Canad\u00e1 y la Uni\u00f3n Europea.<\/p>\n

Adem\u00e1s, se espera un nivel de inventarios en 288.9 millones de toneladas, es decir -0.8% respecto al estimado en noviembre y de -4.8% respecto al observado en el ciclo anterior.<\/p>\n

En Estados Unidos, principal pa\u00eds productor del grano, se estima una producci\u00f3n en 368.5 millones de toneladas, lo que representa un aumento en 6.5% respecto al ciclo anterior.<\/p>\n

Por otro lado, a la fecha, el precio a futuro del grano con vencimiento a julio del 2021 cotiza en 168.2 d\u00f3lares por tonelada, considerando las bases de arrastre que se pagaron en el ciclo anterior de 32 d\u00f3lares por tonelada y un tipo de cambio de 20.18 pesos por d\u00f3lar, generar\u00eda un precio pagado al productor de 4,040 pesos por tonelada; dicho precio, ser\u00eda ligeramente inferior al pagado en la cosecha del ciclo 2019\/20 que fue de 4,150 pesos por tonelada.<\/p>\n

Actualmente, se observan dos aspectos que intervienen de manera importante en el precio estimado para 2020\/21, por un lado, el tipo de cambio, en el que el peso se ha apreciado en m\u00e1s de 2.2 pesos por d\u00f3lar respecto al de julio 2020, por otro lado, el precio del futuro a julio 2021 que es 16.5 d\u00f3lares por tonelada mayor al de julio 2020.<\/p>\n

En resumen, contratar una cobertura de precio durante diciembre y enero parecieran las mejores opciones de contrato, pues entre m\u00e1s tarde se contrate la cobertura de precio, \u00e9sta ser\u00e1 m\u00e1s cara y quiz\u00e1 la rentabilidad sea menor a la estimada en este momento.<\/p>\n

Cualquier estrategia que ayude a mitigar los riesgos de mercado es buena para los agricultores, pues les permitir\u00e1 asegurar y\/o garantizar un precio o un ingreso que les permitir\u00e1 cumplir con sus compromisos financieros.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

De acuerdo al \u00faltimo reporte del USDA, las expectativas internacionales de producci\u00f3n de ma\u00edz mundial para el siguiente ciclo son de 1,143 millones de toneladas<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10,"featured_media":8495,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"single-post.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_eb_attr":"","site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"default","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"default","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center 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