{"id":8553,"date":"2021-02-09T11:00:05","date_gmt":"2021-02-09T17:00:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/backup.primeaction.com\/sp\/?p=8553"},"modified":"2021-02-03T19:21:58","modified_gmt":"2021-02-04T01:21:58","slug":"especialistas-confian-en-que-mejore-el-pib-por-vacunacion-contra-covid","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/backup.primeaction.com\/sp\/especialistas-confian-en-que-mejore-el-pib-por-vacunacion-contra-covid\/","title":{"rendered":"Especialistas conf\u00edan en que mejore el PIB por vacunaci\u00f3n contra COVID"},"content":{"rendered":"

El consenso de analistas elev\u00f3 sus pron\u00f3sticos de crecimiento econ\u00f3mico para este a\u00f1o, en gran medida por el proceso de vacunaci\u00f3n, que ayudar\u00e1 a contener los contagios y permitir\u00e1 una mayor reactivaci\u00f3n de la actividad productiva.<\/p>\n

La Encuesta sobre las expectativas de los especialistas en econom\u00eda del sector privado, del Banco de M\u00e9xico, revela que los analistas esperan un rebote de 3.5 por ciento del Producto Interno Bruto (PIB), luego de la contracci\u00f3n de 8.5 por ciento vista el a\u00f1o pasado.<\/p>\n

Este pron\u00f3stico implican un mayor crecimiento al previsto en la encuesta previa, de 3.44 por ciento, y es la estimaci\u00f3n m\u00e1s elevada desde que hay registros, a finales de 2018.<\/p>\n

Gabriela Soni, jefa de inversiones en UBS, coment\u00f3 en entrevista que la vacunaci\u00f3n influye en la expectativa de crecimiento para este a\u00f1o, ya que la inoculaci\u00f3n beneficiar\u00eda al sector servicios.<\/p>\n

\u201cImporta mucho la vacunaci\u00f3n en M\u00e9xico para la parte de los servicios, porque en M\u00e9xico hemos visto esta econom\u00eda de dos velocidades, en la que las manufacturas o la parte industrial se ha recuperado m\u00e1s r\u00e1pido que la parte de los servicios\u201d, expuso.<\/p>\n

La especialista asever\u00f3 que para el presente a\u00f1o por parte de UBS se espera un crecimiento de 5.6 por ciento, pues, adem\u00e1s del proceso de vacunaci\u00f3n, M\u00e9xico depende de la recuperaci\u00f3n que se dar\u00e1 en Estados Unidos, y la cual ser\u00eda de 6.3 por ciento este a\u00f1o.<\/p>\n

Marcos Arias, analista econ\u00f3mico de Monex, indic\u00f3 que la encuesta de este mes refleja las expectativas de vacunaci\u00f3n.<\/p>\n

\u201cResalta el inicio de los programas de vacunaci\u00f3n a nivel global y la expectativa de un mayor empuje de la econom\u00eda estadounidense a partir de la victoria del Partido Dem\u00f3crata en las elecciones\u201d, dijo.<\/p>\n

En tanto, Am\u00edn Vera, director de an\u00e1lisis econ\u00f3mico de BW Capital, indic\u00f3 que la encuesta de Banxico muestra una mejora generalizada debido en gran parte a que se est\u00e1 descontando un menor impacto de la pandemia.<\/p>\n

\u201cEntre los factores que justifican esta visi\u00f3n m\u00e1s optimista est\u00e1 ciertamente la esperanza de que la vacunaci\u00f3n ayudar\u00e1 a disminuir las tasas de contagio, as\u00ed como la idea de que el virus tiene un fuerte componente estacional parecido al de otras enfermedades respiratorias, como la influenza, que lo vuelve m\u00e1s transmisible en invierno\u201d, abund\u00f3.<\/p>\n

Por otra parte, los consultados estiman que la autoridad monetaria tiene espacio para reanudar el ciclo de tasas, ya que estiman que la tasa objetivo cerrar\u00eda este a\u00f1o en 3.75, frente al 4.25 por ciento actual.<\/p>\n

El consenso tambi\u00e9n estim\u00f3 que la inflaci\u00f3n general cerrar\u00eda este a\u00f1o en 3.66 por ciento, frente al 3.6 por ciento de la encuesta previa.<\/p>\n

Finalmente, se prev\u00e9 que para este 2021 el tipo de cambio cerrar\u00eda en 20.2 pesos por d\u00f3lar, mientras que en la encuesta de diciembre auguraban que cerrar\u00eda en 20.53 pesos por divisa.<\/p>\n

Clima de negocios a\u00fan es incierto<\/p>\n

La encuesta reflej\u00f3 adem\u00e1s opiniones mixtas entre los inversionistas sobre el clima de negocios, pues el 38 por ciento considera que mejorar\u00e1 en los pr\u00f3ximos seis meses, mientras que el 3 por ciento considera que empeorar\u00e1 y el 59 por ciento considera que permanecer\u00e1 igual.<\/p>\n

En la anterior encuesta, el 8 por ciento consideraba que el clima empeorar\u00eda, mientras que el 39 por ciento supon\u00eda que iba a mejorar.<\/p>\n

Adem\u00e1s, el 65 por ciento a\u00fan considera que en la coyuntura actual no es buen momento para realizar inversiones, al 12 por ciento que considera que es buen momento y el 24 por ciento restante que no est\u00e1 seguro.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Expertos indican que la inoculaci\u00f3n ayudar\u00e1 a contener los contagios y permitir\u00e1 una mayor reactivaci\u00f3n de la actividad productiva, especialmente en el sector servicios.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10,"featured_media":8555,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"single-post.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_eb_attr":"","site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"default","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"default","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center 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