{"id":9096,"date":"2021-03-09T11:00:12","date_gmt":"2021-03-09T17:00:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/backup.primeaction.com\/sp\/?p=9096"},"modified":"2021-03-05T19:40:11","modified_gmt":"2021-03-06T01:40:11","slug":"analistas-elevan-pronostico-para-economia-mexicana-estiman-crecimiento-de-3-89-en-2021","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/backup.primeaction.com\/sp\/analistas-elevan-pronostico-para-economia-mexicana-estiman-crecimiento-de-3-89-en-2021\/","title":{"rendered":"Analistas elevan pron\u00f3stico para econom\u00eda mexicana; estiman crecimiento de 3.89% en 2021"},"content":{"rendered":"

Expertos elevaron a 3.89% el pron\u00f3stico de crecimiento en M\u00e9xico para este 2021 pese a la incertidumbre derivada de la pandemia de coronavirus y tras el desplome de -8.2% del PIB del pasado a\u00f1o, inform\u00f3 este martes el Banco de M\u00e9xico (Banxico).<\/p>\n

De acuerdo con la Encuesta sobre las Expectativas de los Especialistas en Econom\u00eda del Sector Privado del Banco, el crecimiento estimado durante febrero es superior al previsto en enero, cuando los expertos consultados por el banco central calculaban un aumento del 3.74% de la econom\u00eda para este a\u00f1o.<\/p>\n

Este es el primer pron\u00f3stico de la encuesta tras confirmarse que la econom\u00eda de M\u00e9xico se contrajo un 8.2% en 2020, su peor desplome desde la Gran Depresi\u00f3n de 1932, seg\u00fan inform\u00f3 el Instituto Nacional de Estad\u00edstica y Geograf\u00eda (Inegi) la semana pasada.<\/p>\n

Pese a la pandemia de Covid-19, los especialistas opinaron que, a nivel general, los principales factores que podr\u00edan obstaculizar el crecimiento econ\u00f3mico son las condiciones econ\u00f3micas internas (47%), la gobernanza (33%) y las finanzas p\u00fablicas (10%).<\/p>\n

A nivel particular, los principales factores fueron la debilidad del mercado interno (23% de respuestas), la incertidumbre pol\u00edtica interna (19%), la incertidumbre de la situaci\u00f3n econ\u00f3mica interna (18%), la pol\u00edtica de gasto p\u00fablico (8%) y problemas de falta de Estado de derecho (7%).<\/p>\n

Adem\u00e1s, los analistas estiman que este 2021 la inflaci\u00f3n general cerrar\u00e1 en el 3.88% y el tipo de cambio del peso, muy vol\u00e1til, acabar\u00e1 en 20.32 pesos por d\u00f3lar.<\/p>\n

Hace un mes, los mismos expertos situaban la inflaci\u00f3n del 2021 en 3.65% y el tipo de cambio en 20.18 unidades por billete verde.<\/p>\n

RECUPERACI\u00d3N INCIERTA<\/p>\n

La proyecci\u00f3n de la encuesta de Banxico se compara con el crecimiento de 3.7% que pronostica el Banco Mundial y el 4.3% que estima el Fondo Monetario Internacional (FMI).<\/p>\n

La Secretar\u00eda de Hacienda y Cr\u00e9dito P\u00fablico (SHCP), que estimaba un decrecimiento del 8% en 2020, calcula un rebote de 4.6% del PIB en 2021.<\/p>\n

Los 34 grupos de an\u00e1lisis y consultor\u00eda econ\u00f3mica del sector privado nacional y extranjero consultados por el Banco de M\u00e9xico empeoraron su pron\u00f3stico para el primer trimestre del a\u00f1o, cuando prev\u00e9n una contracci\u00f3n anual de 4.46% del PIB y una ca\u00edda trimestral de 0.73%.<\/p>\n

En esto coincidi\u00f3 Edmar Ariel Lezama, coordinador del Programa \u00danico de Especializaciones en Econom\u00eda de la Universidad Nacional Aut\u00f3noma de M\u00e9xico (UNAM).<\/p>\n

\u201cEste primer trimestre de 2021 ser\u00e1 malo tambi\u00e9n, tal vez ya no con una cifra negativa, pero s\u00ed muy cercana a cero, y esta meta que se ha planteado para 2021 de crecer entre 3% y 5% puede volverse complicada\u201d, explic\u00f3 el profesor a Efe.<\/p>\n

Adem\u00e1s, de las 12 millones de personas que abandonaron la poblaci\u00f3n econ\u00f3micamente activa (PEA) en abril de 2020, a\u00fan faltan por reincorporarse casi 3 millones, record\u00f3 el acad\u00e9mico al citar al Inegi.<\/p>\n

\u201cEn torno a la cantidad de trabajos no nos hemos recuperado y no ser\u00e1 pronto, y en torno a la calidad tambi\u00e9n dif\u00edcilmente ocurrir\u00e1 en el corto plazo\u201d, lament\u00f3.<\/p>\n

Ante este panorama, la plena recuperaci\u00f3n econ\u00f3mica en M\u00e9xico podr\u00eda tardar hasta 2024, opin\u00f3 H\u00e9ctor Maga\u00f1a, profesor de la Escuela de Negocios del Tec de Monterrey.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Expertos estiman que este 2021 la inflaci\u00f3n general cerrar\u00e1 en el 3.88% y el tipo de cambio, muy vol\u00e1til, acabar\u00e1 en 20.32 pesos por d\u00f3lar.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10,"featured_media":9099,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"single-post.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_eb_attr":"","site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"default","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"default","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"_mbp_gutenberg_autopost":false,"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/cdn.forbes.com.mx\/2021\/02\/centro-historico-cdmx-5-640x360.jpeg","fifu_image_alt":"Analistas elevan pron\u00f3stico para econom\u00eda mexicana; estiman crecimiento de 3.89% en 2021","footnotes":""},"categories":[10],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-9096","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-post-minorista"],"yoast_head":"\nAnalistas elevan pron\u00f3stico para econom\u00eda mexicana; estiman crecimiento de 3.89% en 2021 · Prime Action Consulting<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/backup.primeaction.com\/sp\/analistas-elevan-pronostico-para-economia-mexicana-estiman-crecimiento-de-3-89-en-2021\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"es_ES\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Analistas elevan pron\u00f3stico para econom\u00eda mexicana; estiman crecimiento de 3.89% en 2021 · Prime Action Consulting\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Expertos estiman que este 2021 la inflaci\u00f3n general cerrar\u00e1 en el 3.88% y el tipo de cambio, muy vol\u00e1til, acabar\u00e1 en 20.32 pesos por d\u00f3lar.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/backup.primeaction.com\/sp\/analistas-elevan-pronostico-para-economia-mexicana-estiman-crecimiento-de-3-89-en-2021\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Prime Action Consulting\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2021-03-09T17:00:12+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/cdn.forbes.com.mx\/2021\/02\/centro-historico-cdmx-5-640x360.jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"primeactionmx\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:image\" content=\"https:\/\/cdn.forbes.com.mx\/2021\/02\/centro-historico-cdmx-5-640x360.jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Escrito por\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"primeactionmx\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Tiempo de lectura\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"3 minutos\" \/>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Analistas elevan pron\u00f3stico para econom\u00eda mexicana; 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