{"id":9214,"date":"2021-03-18T11:00:12","date_gmt":"2021-03-18T17:00:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/backup.primeaction.com\/sp\/?p=9214"},"modified":"2021-03-11T21:14:26","modified_gmt":"2021-03-12T03:14:26","slug":"derrama-de-estimulo-fiscal-de-eu-otorgara-impulso-de-1-3-del-pib-a-mexico-banorte","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/backup.primeaction.com\/sp\/derrama-de-estimulo-fiscal-de-eu-otorgara-impulso-de-1-3-del-pib-a-mexico-banorte\/","title":{"rendered":"Derrama de est\u00edmulo fiscal de EU otorgar\u00e1 impulso de 1.3 % del PIB a M\u00e9xico: Banorte"},"content":{"rendered":"

M\u00e9xico por s\u00ed mismo no otorg\u00f3 un est\u00edmulo a la econom\u00eda tras el choque de la pandemia. Pero el que se derramar\u00e1 desde Estados Unidos, otorgar\u00e1 un impulso de hasta 1.3 puntos del Producto Interno Bruto este mismo a\u00f1o, estim\u00f3 el Director General Adjunto de An\u00e1lisis Econ\u00f3mico y relaci\u00f3n con inversionistas de Grupo Financiero Banorte, Gabriel Casillas.<\/p>\n

Al participar en el Latinamerica Summit 2021, organizado por el Instituto de Finanzas Internacionales (IIF), explic\u00f3 que el apoyo millonario que reci\u00e9n aprob\u00f3 el Congreso de Estados Unidos para las empresas y trabajadores de aquel pa\u00eds tendr\u00e1 la fuerza para llegar a M\u00e9xico a trav\u00e9s de mayores exportaciones y remesas.<\/p>\n

Por tanto, anticip\u00f3 que vendr\u00e1n importantes ajustes al alza en las expectativas del mercado acerca del PIB mexicano para 2021. La que hasta ahora tiene Grupo Financiero Banorte para M\u00e9xico est\u00e1 en 3.8 por ciento.<\/p>\n

Durante su participaci\u00f3n en la mesa dedicada al tema de la \u00abRecuperaci\u00f3n econ\u00f3mica para Am\u00e9rica Latina en 2021\u00bb, el analista dijo que la velocidad de la recuperaci\u00f3n econ\u00f3mica tras el choque de la pandemia est\u00e1 fuertemente vinculado al tama\u00f1o de la respuesta fiscal contrac\u00edclica aplicada por los gobiernos desde el a\u00f1o pasado.<\/p>\n

Tom\u00f3 los casos de M\u00e9xico y Espa\u00f1a como ejemplo para evidenciar que tuvieron un desplome igual de profundo en su PIB durante el segundo trimestre de 2020, cercano a 17%, pero los gobiernos respondieron al mismo choque en distinta proporci\u00f3n.<\/p>\n

La diferencia del est\u00edmulo aplicado se mide hoy en la expectativa de recuperaci\u00f3n esperada para Espa\u00f1a y de M\u00e9xico, acot\u00f3.<\/p>\n

De acuerdo con datos de la Comisi\u00f3n Europea, Espa\u00f1a registrar\u00e1 un rebote de 5.4% en su econom\u00eda, contra el estimado en 4.5% para M\u00e9xico, cercano al 3.6%, que espera el mercado para M\u00e9xico.<\/p>\n

Destac\u00f3 los esfuerzos recaudatorios que generaron ingresos de 0.8% del PIB en plena contracci\u00f3n econ\u00f3mica y a contracorriente de la tendencia mundial por la pandemia.<\/p>\n

Pero matiz\u00f3 sus expectativas sobre la posibilidad de un aumento consistente de los ingresos p\u00fablicos, pese a que desde antes de la pandemia, el secretario de Hacienda, Arturo Herrera reconoci\u00f3 que se requiere una reforma fiscal que fortalezca las arcas p\u00fablicas.<\/p>\n

Estim\u00f3 que la presi\u00f3n en la inflaci\u00f3n seguir\u00e1 consolid\u00e1ndose a partir de las alzas de precios de combustibles y estim\u00f3 que al menos para la reuni\u00f3n de Banco de M\u00e9xico (Banxico) de marzo, no habr\u00e1 cambio alguno en la tasa que hoy se encuentra en 4 por ciento.<\/p>\n

Debilidad previa, la diferencia: Fitch<\/p>\n

En la misma sesi\u00f3n particip\u00f3 la Directora de calificaciones soberanas para Am\u00e9rica Latina en Fitch, Shelly Shetty, quien acot\u00f3 que el impacto del choque por la pandemia en las econom\u00edas fue mayor en esta regi\u00f3n por las condiciones de debilidad con que lo recibieron.<\/p>\n

La pandemia subray\u00f3 la desigualdad de los pa\u00edse, particularmente en la regi\u00f3n, evidencio la informalidad y profundiz\u00f3 los problemas que ya ten\u00edan muchas econom\u00edas en Am\u00e9rica Latina, observ\u00f3 la analista.<\/p>\n

Coincidi\u00f3 en que el tama\u00f1o del est\u00edmulo fiscal ayud\u00f3 a amortiguar el impacto por el cierre de las econom\u00edas y subray\u00f3 que las revisiones de calificaci\u00f3n que se ejecutaron el a\u00f1o pasado, fueron muy minuciosas, e incorporaron los compromisos de los gobiernos para retomar la correcci\u00f3n de sus balances, lo que es el caso espec\u00edfico de Brasil.<\/p>\n

Su participaci\u00f3n en la mesa estuvo enfocada a la situaci\u00f3n financiera regional y recarg\u00f3 su an\u00e1lisis en Brasil y Argentina. Funcionarios del sector financiero confirmaron a El Economista que el contrato de calificaci\u00f3n para el soberano con la agencia sigue operando con normalidad.<\/p>\n

Shetty mencion\u00f3 a M\u00e9xico s\u00f3lo en tres ocasiones: cuando habl\u00f3 sobre una baja vulnerabilidad de las cuentas externas; al referirle como uno de los pa\u00edses que tienen m\u00e1s estabilidad en su divisa y al identificarle como una de las tres econom\u00edas m\u00e1s grandes de la regi\u00f3n, con una posici\u00f3n fiscal menos comprometida.<\/p>\n

Cabe recordar que la semana pasada, el gobierno y Petr\u00f3leos Mexicanos (Pemex) decidieron no renovar el contrato con Fitch, quien en un escueto comunicado avis\u00f3 que seguir\u00eda revisando la situaci\u00f3n de la petrolera para sus clientes con la informaci\u00f3n p\u00fablica disponible. La firma reiter\u00f3 que la calificaci\u00f3n de Pemex es especulativa y que sin el apoyo del gobierno federal, la nota individual de la paraestatal ser\u00eda \u201cCCC\u201d que es el nivel m\u00e1s bajo que puede tener un emisor, correspondiente a \u201calto riesgo de impago\u201d.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

El Director General Adjunto de An\u00e1lisis Econ\u00f3mico y relaci\u00f3n con inversionistas de Grupo Financiero Banorte, Gabriel Casillas, explic\u00f3 que el apoyo millonario que reci\u00e9n aprob\u00f3 el Congreso de Estados Unidos para las empresas y trabajadores de aquel pa\u00eds tendr\u00e1 la fuerza para llegar a M\u00e9xico a trav\u00e9s de mayores exportaciones y remesas.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10,"featured_media":9216,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"single-post.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_eb_attr":"","site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"default","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"default","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center 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