{"id":9290,"date":"2021-03-24T11:00:38","date_gmt":"2021-03-24T17:00:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/backup.primeaction.com\/sp\/?p=9290"},"modified":"2021-03-17T18:20:05","modified_gmt":"2021-03-18T00:20:05","slug":"los-inversionistas-mexicanos-compensan-la-fuga-de-capital-extranjero-en-2020","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/backup.primeaction.com\/sp\/los-inversionistas-mexicanos-compensan-la-fuga-de-capital-extranjero-en-2020\/","title":{"rendered":"Los inversionistas mexicanos compensan la fuga de capital extranjero en 2020"},"content":{"rendered":"

La incertidumbre provocada por los efectos de la pandemia en la econom\u00eda de M\u00e9xico, as\u00ed como la expectativa por las reformas al sector energ\u00e9tico, al outsourcing y a la Ley del Banco de M\u00e9xico (Banxico), entre otras, provocaron que en 2020 los inversionistas for\u00e1neos abandonaran activos financieros nacionales por 257,238 millones de pesos (mdp).<\/p>\n

Sin embargo, en las cifras totales no hay registrada una ca\u00edda, sino todo lo contrario, ya que los activos en manos de los inversionistas residentes en M\u00e9xico subieron a 1.1 billones de pesos. El total de valores gubernamentales tuvo un repunte de 887,915 mdp, se\u00f1alan datos de Banxico.<\/p>\n

\u00bfDe d\u00f3nde llegaron los recursos?<\/p>\n

Una parte de la llegada de esos recursos a bonos del gobierno se explica por las operaciones realizadas por el gobierno mexicano, pues redujo la oferta de instrumentos en pesos y opt\u00f3 por colocaciones en otras divisas. Esto, aunado a las altas tasa de inter\u00e9s, result\u00f3 atractivo para los inversionistas locales, coinciden varios analistas consultados.<\/p>\n

\u201cHemos visto, desde el inicio de la pandemia, salidas importantes de (inversionistas) extranjeros en deuda local. Esto lo supo leer muy bien la Secretar\u00eda de Hacienda, y lo que hizo fue reducir de manera importante la oferta de deuda local, en pos de oferta global. Empez\u00f3 a emitir bonos en otras monedas, y eso ayud\u00f3 a que la salida de los extranjeros fuera absorbida de manera ordenada por el inversionista local\u201d, explica Luis Gonzali, co-director de inversiones en Franklin Templeton Investments.<\/p>\n

La tasa de referencia de Banxico es de 4%, mientras que la que existe en Estados Unidos es de 0.25%. Es decir: los bonos del gobierno mexicano dan un rendimiento bastante m\u00e1s elevado.<\/p>\n

Antes del sexenio actual y de la pandemia, la oferta de Hacienda era mayormente absorbida por extranjeros, a\u00f1ade Gonzali. Pero en 2020, la salida de capitales extranjeros obedeci\u00f3 a factores externos e internos, principalmente al temor sobre el ritmo de la econom\u00eda mexicana y la crisis a nivel mundial. De hecho, hubo salida de capitales en los mercados emergentes de todo el planeta, detalla el directivo de Franklin Templeton.<\/p>\n

Por otro lado, el gobierno de L\u00f3pez Obrador ha implementado medidas pol\u00e9micas que ahuyentaron a los inversionistas extranjeros, como la cancelaci\u00f3n de una planta de la empresa Constellation Brands en Mexicali y la reciente aprobaci\u00f3n de una reforma al sector el\u00e9ctrico que beneficia a la CFE frente a las empresas privadas.<\/p>\n

Bajo este entorno, los extranjeros consideran que los activos de Estados Unidos tienen menor riesgo, aunque ofrezcan menores rendimientos. Sin embargo, los inversionistas locales prefirieron optar por los bonos y salirse de las acciones de la Bolsa, agrega Gabriela Siller, directora de an\u00e1lisis financiero y econ\u00f3mico de Banco Base. En tiempos de crisis, la Bolsa suele desplomarse, y la pandemia ha hundido los precios de la mayor\u00eda de las acciones de las compa\u00f1\u00edas mexicanas. En este entorno, los bonos son un activo m\u00e1s ‘aburrido’, pero seguro.<\/p>\n

\u201cHa habido movimientos en la Bolsa medio err\u00e1ticos, lo que me hace pensar que los inversionistas dejaban la renta variable (las acciones) y compraban instrumentos gubernamentales (bonos de renta fija), es decir, que se sacrifica rendimiento a cambio de menor riesgo\u201d, se\u00f1ala Siller. Adem\u00e1s, es muy posible que la compra de bonos haya sido por parte de los bancos donde los inversionistas extranjeros ten\u00edan sus cuentas. \u201cFueron los bancos quienes se los compraron de regreso\u201d, considera Siller.<\/p>\n

\u00bfM\u00e1s riesgos en 2021?<\/p>\n

En lo que va del 2021 se observa un comportamiento similar al de 2020, de acuerdo con cifras del banco central mexicano. Al 25 de febrero de 2021 los valores gubernamentales en manos de extranjeros fueron 55,934 mdp menos que al cierre del a\u00f1o pasado, mientras los adquiridos por residentes incrementaron 239,430 mdp, lo que ayud\u00f3 a reportar un saldo a favor en el total.<\/p>\n

Entre los factores que atraen al inversionista local est\u00e1n una tasa de inter\u00e9s mayor a la de Estados Unidos y mercados m\u00e1s desarrollados; las medidas de disciplina fiscal para el balance presupuestario que continu\u00f3 el actual gobierno y que ayudan a abonar a la calificaci\u00f3n crediticia que no se ver\u00e1 afectada, al menos en el corto-mediano plazo, a\u00f1adi\u00f3 Gonzali.<\/p>\n

\u201cHay una serie de pol\u00edticas econ\u00f3micas no ortodoxas que han propiciado mayor incertidumbre sobre M\u00e9xico\u201d y que ha espantado a los capitales conocidos como \u201cgolondrinos\u201d: la aprobaci\u00f3n de la ley el\u00e9ctrica, la intenci\u00f3n de cambios para la contrataci\u00f3n de personal v\u00eda outsourcing, y la propuesta de gravar las grandes fortunas, consider\u00f3 Gabriela Siller<\/p>\n

\u201cHab\u00edamos recibido muchos capitales por el diferencial en las tasas de inter\u00e9s y ahora que empieza la especulaci\u00f3n de que la Reserva Federal va a retirar est\u00edmulos empiezan a salir los capitales, pero ahora con la diferencia de que M\u00e9xico es percibido como un pa\u00eds de mayor riesgo por las pr\u00e1cticas econ\u00f3micas que se han llevado a cabo\u201d, dijo la economista.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Muchos inversionistas extranjeros abandonaron los bonos de M\u00e9xico, pero los residentes en el pa\u00eds aumentaron en 888,000 mdp su posici\u00f3n en bonos, al ser un activo m\u00e1s seguro que la Bolsa.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10,"featured_media":9292,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"single-post.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_eb_attr":"","site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"default","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"default","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center 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