{"id":9628,"date":"2021-04-15T10:00:15","date_gmt":"2021-04-15T15:00:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/backup.primeaction.com\/sp\/?p=9628"},"modified":"2021-04-15T10:00:20","modified_gmt":"2021-04-15T15:00:20","slug":"suben-apuestas-por-alza-a-tasa-clave-de-mexico-a-fines-de-2021-tras-repunte-de-inflacion","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/backup.primeaction.com\/sp\/suben-apuestas-por-alza-a-tasa-clave-de-mexico-a-fines-de-2021-tras-repunte-de-inflacion\/","title":{"rendered":"Suben apuestas por alza a tasa clave de M\u00e9xico a fines de 2021 tras repunte de inflaci\u00f3n"},"content":{"rendered":"

El reciente repunte inflacionario en M\u00e9xico est\u00e1 alentando las expectativas de que el Banco de M\u00e9xico (Banxico) mantenga su tasa clave de inter\u00e9s por unos meses y la eleve a fines del a\u00f1o, un movimiento que no esperaba el mercado sino hasta el 2022, revirtiendo un ciclo de bajas que inici\u00f3 en 2019 para dinamizar la econom\u00eda.<\/p>\n

En su m\u00e1s reciente decisi\u00f3n de pol\u00edtica monetaria, hace un par de semanas, la autoridad mantuvo la tasa de referencia un 4% , luego de un periodo de relajaci\u00f3n que acumul\u00f3 una reducci\u00f3n de 425 puntos base desde 2019, mientras los precios al consumidor oscilaban dentro del rango objetivo.<\/p>\n

Pero en el mes pasado, la inflaci\u00f3n interanual local se aceler\u00f3 a su mayor nivel en m\u00e1s de dos a\u00f1os y con el riesgo de permanecer alta o incluso subir, limitando el margen de maniobra de Banxico para el manejo de la pol\u00edtica monetaria, afirmaron expertos.<\/p>\n

Los swaps de tasas en M\u00e9xico incorporan incrementos de alrededor de 30 puntos base a la tasa de referencia para el cierre de este mismo a\u00f1o, seg\u00fan un an\u00e1lisis de Banorte, un grupo financiero que cambi\u00f3 el jueves su previsi\u00f3n de estabilidad sobre la tasa y ahora prev\u00e9 que Banxico la suba en diciembre.<\/p>\n

\u201cLas condiciones de inflaci\u00f3n y de pol\u00edtica monetaria relativa hacia finales del a\u00f1o se ven distintas\u201d, dijo Santiago Leal, subdirector de estrategia de renta fija y tipo de cambio en Banorte. \u201cLos siguientes comunicados seguramente van a estar sesgados a una postura cada vez m\u00e1s hawkish (restrictiva o tendiente a subir las tasas)\u201d, agreg\u00f3.<\/p>\n

A fin de marzo, los swaps descontaban un aumento de 100 puntos base en la tasa de referencia, lo cual era \u201cpoco realista\u201d, explic\u00f3 Leal, quien a\u00f1adi\u00f3 que los niveles actuales reflejan un escenario de restricci\u00f3n monetaria mucho m\u00e1s viable.<\/p>\n

Apenas al cierre del mes pasado, el consenso de analistas esperaba que Banxico mantuviera su tasa de referencia en 4% en lo que resta de esta a\u00f1o y que hasta 2022 comenzara a subirla, revel\u00f3 un sondeo del propio banco central.<\/p>\n

No obstante, los datos de inflaci\u00f3n recientes podr\u00edan cambiar la visi\u00f3n sobre los siguientes pasos del banco central, en medio de una posible alza en los rendimientos en Estados Unidos y una mayor volatilidad financiera.<\/p>\n

\u201cYo espero al menos un par de incrementos de 25 puntos base, aunque vale la pena aclarar que no espero un ciclo restrictivo de la pol\u00edtica monetaria\u201d, opin\u00f3 Joel Virgen, analista independiente basado en Nueva York, quien fue economista para M\u00e9xico en los bancos Citibanamex y BNP Paribas.<\/p>\n

\u201cLa l\u00f3gica de los incrementos es permanecer competitivos en t\u00e9rminos de diferenciales de tasa de inter\u00e9s (si suben los rendimientos en Estados Unidos)\u201d, agreg\u00f3.<\/p>\n

BANXICO, CON EL DEDO EN EL GATILLO<\/p>\n

A pesar de las expectativas del mercado, Banxico afirm\u00f3 en su \u00faltima decisi\u00f3n de pol\u00edtica monetaria que la pausa en los recortes hechos a la tasa clave no implica que el ciclo de relajamiento haya concluido.<\/p>\n

Los comentarios del banco surgieron al mismo tiempo en que la directora gerente del Fondo Monetario Internacional, Kristalina Georgieva, dijera que, en medio de una r\u00e1pida recuperaci\u00f3n global, le preocupaba el efecto de una acelerada alza en tasas, particularmente en pa\u00edses emergentes.<\/p>\n

La atenci\u00f3n de los inversionistas sobre los precios y las tasas de inter\u00e9s es tangible en varios mercados. La moneda mexicana, otro term\u00f3metro de las expectativas de las futuras acciones del banco central, tambi\u00e9n reaccion\u00f3 a los datos de inflaci\u00f3n y se apreci\u00f3 el jueves hasta su mejor nivel en casi dos meses, cercano a las 20 unidades por d\u00f3lar.<\/p>\n

\u201c(La inflaci\u00f3n) confirma que el ciclo de relajamiento de Banco de M\u00e9xico termin\u00f3 (\u2026) Ello evitar\u00e1 un deterioro adicional en el peso, al impedir la erosi\u00f3n del carry\u201c, anticiparon analistas de la casa de bolsa Monex en una nota.<\/p>\n

En los \u00faltimos dos a\u00f1os, el peso mexicano ha sido soportado por la lucrativa estrategia del carry trade, que se basa en el amplio diferencial de tasas entre M\u00e9xico y otros pa\u00edses.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

La inflaci\u00f3n interanual local se aceler\u00f3 a su mayor nivel en m\u00e1s de dos a\u00f1os y con el riesgo de permanecer alta o incluso subir, limita el margen de maniobra de Banxico, afirmaron expertos.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10,"featured_media":9629,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_eb_attr":"","site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"default","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"default","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center 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